Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)

$28.25

+1.06 (+3.90%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -203.92 | 28.25 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,3735,9025,0633,0975,6016,479.957,496.828,673.2810,034.3511,609.01
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -4,9701,7076721,1303,327316.61366.30423.78490.28567.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -4,9701,707672-1,186-861.54-4,529.22-5,239.98-6,062.27-7,013.61-8,114.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---2,3164,188.544,845.845,606.286,486.057,503.898,681.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 5631,4628581,1895801,339.271,549.441,792.582,073.892,399.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,8301,0791,1227471,1421,643.311,901.192,199.542,544.712,944.04
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 12696727677126.47146.32169.28195.84226.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,3951,3201,3078371,1101,644.931,903.062,201.702,547.212,946.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,974-2,753-2,550-1,343-1,046-2,646.29-3,061.57-3,542.01-4,097.85-4,740.91
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.25
Beta 2.489
Diluted Shares Outstanding 788
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 5.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.574
Total Debt 4,014
Total Equity 22,261
Total Capital 26,275
Debt Weighting 15.28
Equity Weighting 84.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,3735,9025,0633,0975,6016,479.957,496.828,673.2810,034.3511,609.01
EBITDA -4,9701,7076721,1303,327316.61366.30423.78490.28567.22
EBIT -4,9701,707672-1,186-861.54-4,529.22-5,239.98-6,062.27-7,013.61-8,114.23
Tax Rate -1,160.57%23.20%-22.45%0.96%5.78%-230.62%-230.62%-230.62%-230.62%-230.62%
EBIAT -62,650.461,311.05822.86-1,174.67-811.77-14,974.46-17,324.36-20,043.01-23,188.30-26,827.17
Depreciation ---2,3164,188.544,845.845,606.286,486.057,503.898,681.45
Accounts Receivable -751-43375-395-501.31-257.88-298.35-345.17-399.33
Inventories -3024-4-1-49.47-19.85-22.96-26.56-30.73
Accounts Payable --75-13-470273534.93258.13298.64345.51399.73
Capital Expenditure -1,974-2,753-2,550-1,343-1,046-2,646.29-3,061.57-3,542.01-4,097.85-4,740.91
UFCF -64,624.46-735.95-1,759.14-300.672,207.77-12,790.78-14,799.24-17,121.64-19,808.48-22,916.97
WACC
PV UFCF -11,208.18-11,363.60-11,520.20-11,678.96-11,839.91
SUM PV UFCF -57,610.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) -23,375.31
Terminal Value -192,865.56
Present Value of Terminal Value -99,642.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -157,253.64
Net Debt 3,434
Equity Value -160,687.64
Shares Outstanding 788
Equity Value Per Share -203.92