Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MSCI Inc. (MSCI)

$415.02

-5.74 (-1.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 204.98 | 415.02 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,274.171,433.981,557.801,695.392,043.542,301.772,592.622,920.233,289.233,704.87
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 662.98848.55830.77953.341,151.881,275.801,437.011,618.591,823.122,053.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 583763.01751.36842.551,017.751,135.671,279.181,440.821,622.881,827.95
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 79.9985.5379.41110.80134.13140.12157.83177.77200.24225.54
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 889.50904.181,506.571,300.521,421.451,730.201,948.842,195.092,472.472,784.89
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 327.60473.43499.27558.57664.51719.25810.14912.511,027.821,157.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.613.896.5014.2513.4510.651213.5115.2217.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -48.82-48.96-53.77-50.98-52.79-74.98-84.45-95.13-107.15-120.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 415.02
Beta 1.103
Diluted Shares Outstanding 83.58
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.40
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.182
Total Debt 4,311.45
Total Equity 34,686.54
Total Capital 38,997.99
Debt Weighting 11.06
Equity Weighting 88.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,274.171,433.981,557.801,695.392,043.542,301.772,592.622,920.233,289.233,704.87
EBITDA 662.98848.55830.77953.341,151.881,275.801,437.011,618.591,823.122,053.49
EBIT 583763.01751.36842.551,017.751,135.671,279.181,440.821,622.881,827.95
Tax Rate 34.90%19.37%6.58%12.30%15.40%17.71%17.71%17.71%17.71%17.71%
EBIAT 379.56615.21701.95738.92861.02934.571,052.661,185.681,335.501,504.26
Depreciation 79.9985.5379.41110.80134.13140.12157.83177.77200.24225.54
Accounts Receivable --145.84-25.83-59.30-105.94-54.74-90.89-102.37-115.31-129.88
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -2.282.617.76-0.81-2.801.351.521.711.92
Capital Expenditure -48.82-48.96-53.77-50.98-52.79-74.98-84.45-95.13-107.15-120.69
UFCF 410.73508.23704.36747.19835.60942.171,036.501,167.471,314.991,481.16
WACC
PV UFCF 868.28880.30913.77948.52984.58
SUM PV UFCF 4,595.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.51
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,510.78
Terminal Value 23,207.07
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,426.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 20,022.09
Net Debt 2,890
Equity Value 17,132.09
Shares Outstanding 83.58
Equity Value Per Share 204.98