Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Mannatech, Incorporated (MTEX)
$12.795
+0.17 (+1.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 173.56 | 157.73 | 151.41 | 159.76 | 137.21 | 129.76 | 122.71 | 116.04 | 109.74 | 103.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 2.84 | 7.81 | 7.80 | 10.68 | 1.24 | 5.01 | 4.74 | 4.48 | 4.24 | 4.01 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 0.78 | 5.72 | 5.81 | 8.96 | -0.39 | 3.43 | 3.25 | 3.07 | 2.90 | 2.75 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.06 | 2.09 | 1.99 | 1.72 | 1.63 | 1.58 | 1.49 | 1.41 | 1.34 | 1.26 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 21.84 | 24.76 | 22.21 | 24.19 | 13.78 | 17.68 | 16.72 | 15.81 | 14.95 | 14.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 0.40 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 0.43 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 12.82 | 10.15 | 12.83 | 12.02 | 14.73 | 10.52 | 9.95 | 9.41 | 8.90 | 8.42 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 6.72 | 3.53 | 4.80 | 3.97 | 4.36 | 3.88 | 3.67 | 3.47 | 3.28 | 3.10 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.34 | -1.22 | -0.95 | -0.65 | -1.06 | -1.02 | -0.96 | -0.91 | -0.86 | -0.82 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 12.795 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.219 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1.91 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -837.37 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.37% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.446 |
| Total Debt | 2.01 |
| Total Equity | 24.48 |
| Total Capital | 26.49 |
| Debt Weighting | 7.60 |
| Equity Weighting | 92.40 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 173.56 | 157.73 | 151.41 | 159.76 | 137.21 | 129.76 | 122.71 | 116.04 | 109.74 | 103.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2.84 | 7.81 | 7.80 | 10.68 | 1.24 | 5.01 | 4.74 | 4.48 | 4.24 | 4.01 |
| EBIT | 0.78 | 5.72 | 5.81 | 8.96 | -0.39 | 3.43 | 3.25 | 3.07 | 2.90 | 2.75 |
| Tax Rate | 894.68% | 42.66% | -9.36% | -10.68% | -837.37% | 15.99% | 15.99% | 15.99% | 15.99% | 15.99% |
| EBIAT | -6.17 | 3.28 | 6.35 | 9.92 | -3.67 | 2.88 | 2.73 | 2.58 | 2.44 | 2.31 |
| Depreciation | 2.06 | 2.09 | 1.99 | 1.72 | 1.63 | 1.58 | 1.49 | 1.41 | 1.34 | 1.26 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.78 | -0.02 | 0.76 | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Inventories | - | 2.67 | -2.67 | 0.81 | -2.71 | 4.20 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -3.20 | 1.27 | -0.83 | 0.39 | -0.48 | -0.21 | -0.20 | -0.19 | -0.18 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.34 | -1.22 | -0.95 | -0.65 | -1.06 | -1.02 | -0.96 | -0.91 | -0.86 | -0.82 |
| UFCF | -6.45 | 2.84 | 5.97 | 11.73 | -5.62 | 7.16 | 3.65 | 3.46 | 3.27 | 3.09 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 6.56 | 3.07 | 2.66 | 2.31 | 2 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 16.61 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.06 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3.15 |
| Terminal Value | 44.66 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 28.94 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 45.56 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -11.77 |
| Equity Value | 57.32 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.91 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 29.96 |