Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MTY Food Group Inc. (MTY.TO)

$57.56

-1.06 (-1.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 132.29 | 57.56 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 276.08353.30550.94511.12551.90668.72810.25981.741,189.531,441.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 95.53121.71148.79-0.77168.79169.18204.98248.37300.93364.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 72.6394.21115.58-48.64124.17116.27140.88170.69206.82250.60
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 22.9027.5033.2147.8744.6252.9164.1077.6794.11114.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 56.4532.3050.7444.3061.2378.3294.90114.99139.32168.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 38.3851.3069.77148.14151.41130.40158191.44231.96281.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3.283.577.539.4110.719.8311.9114.4317.4821.18
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 57.5668.70100.76111.37119.46136.44165.32200.31242.70294.07
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.27-7.83-7.30-5.62-6.76-9.43-11.43-13.84-16.77-20.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 57.56
Beta 1.914
Diluted Shares Outstanding 24.75
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.59
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.805
Total Debt 834.28
Total Equity 1,424.33
Total Capital 2,258.61
Debt Weighting 36.94
Equity Weighting 63.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 276.08353.30550.94511.12551.90668.72810.25981.741,189.531,441.30
EBITDA 95.53121.71148.79-0.77168.79169.18204.98248.37300.93364.63
EBIT 72.6394.21115.58-48.64124.17116.27140.88170.69206.82250.60
Tax Rate 21.00%-18.91%20.74%28.57%23.59%14.99%14.99%14.99%14.99%14.99%
EBIAT 57.38112.0291.62-34.7494.8998.83119.75145.10175.81213.02
Depreciation 22.9027.5033.2147.8744.6252.9164.1077.6794.11114.03
Accounts Receivable --12.93-18.47-78.36-3.2721-27.60-33.44-40.52-49.10
Inventories --0.29-3.96-1.88-1.290.88-2.08-2.52-3.05-3.70
Accounts Payable -11.1532.0610.618.0916.9828.8834.9942.4051.37
Capital Expenditure -3.27-7.83-7.30-5.62-6.76-9.43-11.43-13.84-16.77-20.33
UFCF 77.02129.62127.15-62.13136.27181.17171.63207.95251.97305.30
WACC
PV UFCF 166.98145.79162.81181.81203.04
SUM PV UFCF 860.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.50
Free cash flow (t + 1) 311.41
Terminal Value 4,790.86
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,186.14

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,046.57
Net Debt 773.04
Equity Value 3,273.52
Shares Outstanding 24.75
Equity Value Per Share 132.29