Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA)

$247.49

-3.78 (-1.50%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 770.28 | 247.49 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	14,362.30	14,034.60	11,264.30	17,360.50	23,446.10	27,382.30	31,979.32	37,348.11	43,618.22	50,940.98
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	460.80	409.50	721.30	816.90	1,189.50	1,221.71	1,426.82	1,666.36	1,946.11	2,272.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	326.80	257.30	560.30	604.30	969.10	914.41	1,067.92	1,247.21	1,456.59	1,701.13
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	134	152.20	161	212.60	220.40	307.31	358.90	419.15	489.52	571.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	184.50	280.30	163.60	256.40	78.40	358.46	418.64	488.92	571.01	666.87
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	138.80	172.90	168.80	195.70	281.70	329.99	385.39	450.09	525.66	613.91
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	221.50	227.60	279.10	292.30	319.10	475.71	555.57	648.84	757.77	884.99
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	274.90	280.80	261	392.50	497.80	581.38	678.98	792.97	926.10	1,081.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-204.30	-204.80	-230.70	-274.70	-381.71	-445.79	-520.63	-608.04	-710.12	-829.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 247.49
Beta	0.816
Diluted Shares Outstanding	23.95
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	23.86
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.458
Total Debt	2,251.10
Total Equity	5,927.39
Total Capital	8,178.49
Debt Weighting	27.52
Equity Weighting	72.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	14,362.30	14,034.60	11,264.30	17,360.50	23,446.10	27,382.30	31,979.32	37,348.11	43,618.22	50,940.98
EBITDA	460.80	409.50	721.30	816.90	1,189.50	1,221.71	1,426.82	1,666.36	1,946.11	2,272.83
EBIT	326.80	257.30	560.30	604.30	969.10	914.41	1,067.92	1,247.21	1,456.59	1,701.13
Tax Rate	22.02%	23.52%	24.16%	23.95%	23.86%	23.50%	23.50%	23.50%	23.50%	23.50%
EBIAT	254.85	196.79	424.93	459.56	737.84	699.51	816.94	954.09	1,114.27	1,301.34
Depreciation	134	152.20	161	212.60	220.40	307.31	358.90	419.15	489.52	571.70
Accounts Receivable	-	-34.10	4.10	-26.90	-86	-48.29	-55.40	-64.70	-75.56	-88.25
Inventories	-	-6.10	-51.50	-13.20	-26.80	-156.61	-79.86	-93.27	-108.93	-127.22
Accounts Payable	-	5.90	-19.80	131.50	105.30	83.57	97.60	113.99	133.13	155.48
Capital Expenditure	-204.30	-204.80	-230.70	-274.70	-381.71	-445.79	-520.63	-608.04	-710.12	-829.33
UFCF	184.55	109.89	288.03	488.86	569.04	439.70	617.55	721.23	842.31	983.72
WACC
PV UFCF						414.03	547.55	602.14	662.17	728.19
SUM PV UFCF										2,954.08

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.20
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,003.39
Terminal Value	23,890.24
Present Value of Terminal Value	17,684.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	20,638.79
Net Debt	2,190.60
Equity Value	18,448.19
Shares Outstanding	23.95
Equity Value Per Share	770.28