Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB)
$38.97
+0.39 (+1.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 426.17 | 451.42 | 458.66 | 475.97 | 515.12 | 540.27 | 566.64 | 594.31 | 623.32 | 653.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 188.95 | 159.01 | 136.48 | 202.67 | 220.30 | 210.34 | 220.61 | 231.38 | 242.68 | 254.52 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 175.63 | 138.70 | 115.93 | 182.79 | 201.24 | 188.75 | 197.96 | 207.63 | 217.76 | 228.39 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 13.32 | 20.32 | 20.55 | 19.88 | 19.06 | 21.59 | 22.65 | 23.75 | 24.91 | 26.13 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,179.45 | 1,192.18 | 2,021.38 | 2,956.43 | 1,724.58 | 2,093.54 | 2,195.74 | 2,302.93 | 2,415.36 | 2,533.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.40 | -6.65 | -8.16 | -7.74 | -7.01 | -8.62 | -9.04 | -9.48 | -9.94 | -10.43 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 38.97 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.531 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 43.99 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.51 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.30% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.761 |
| Total Debt | 787.95 |
| Total Equity | 1,714.24 |
| Total Capital | 2,502.19 |
| Debt Weighting | 31.49 |
| Equity Weighting | 68.51 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 426.17 | 451.42 | 458.66 | 475.97 | 515.12 | 540.27 | 566.64 | 594.31 | 623.32 | 653.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 188.95 | 159.01 | 136.48 | 202.67 | 220.30 | 210.34 | 220.61 | 231.38 | 242.68 | 254.52 |
| EBIT | 175.63 | 138.70 | 115.93 | 182.79 | 201.24 | 188.75 | 197.96 | 207.63 | 217.76 | 228.39 |
| Tax Rate | 17.84% | 22.14% | 21.56% | 22.50% | 22.51% | 21.31% | 21.31% | 21.31% | 21.31% | 21.31% |
| EBIAT | 144.30 | 107.99 | 90.93 | 141.65 | 155.93 | 148.52 | 155.78 | 163.38 | 171.36 | 179.72 |
| Depreciation | 13.32 | 20.32 | 20.55 | 19.88 | 19.06 | 21.59 | 22.65 | 23.75 | 24.91 | 26.13 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.40 | -6.65 | -8.16 | -7.74 | -7.01 | -8.62 | -9.04 | -9.48 | -9.94 | -10.43 |
| UFCF | 150.22 | 121.66 | 103.33 | 153.79 | 167.99 | 161.50 | 169.38 | 177.65 | 186.33 | 195.42 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 152.83 | 151.70 | 150.56 | 149.44 | 148.33 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 752.86 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.67 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 199.33 |
| Terminal Value | 5,431.37 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,122.41 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 4,875.27 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 590.60 |
| Equity Value | 4,284.67 |
| Shares Outstanding | 43.99 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 97.40 |