Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB)

$39.13

-0.21 (-0.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 125.19 | 39.13 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 399.22426.17451.42458.66475.97497.45519.90543.37567.89593.52
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 167.09188.95231.73186.24238.53227.08237.33248.04259.23270.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 154.07175.63211.41165.69218.65207.63217.01226.80237.04247.74
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 13.0213.3220.3220.5519.8819.4420.3221.2422.2023.20
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,415.591,179.451,192.182,021.382,956.431,947.322,035.212,127.062,223.072,323.41
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6.69-7.40-6.65-8.16-7.74-8.25-8.62-9.01-9.42-9.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 39.13
Beta 0.554
Diluted Shares Outstanding 43.99
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.50
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.311
Total Debt 311.48
Total Equity 1,721.27
Total Capital 2,032.75
Debt Weighting 15.32
Equity Weighting 84.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 399.22426.17451.42458.66475.97497.45519.90543.37567.89593.52
EBITDA 167.09188.95231.73186.24238.53227.08237.33248.04259.23270.94
EBIT 154.07175.63211.41165.69218.65207.63217.01226.80237.04247.74
Tax Rate 35.90%17.84%22.14%21.56%22.50%23.99%23.99%23.99%23.99%23.99%
EBIAT 98.76144.30164.61129.96169.45157.83164.95172.40180.18188.31
Depreciation 13.0213.3220.3220.5519.8819.4420.3221.2422.2023.20
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -6.69-7.40-6.65-8.16-7.74-8.25-8.62-9.01-9.42-9.84
UFCF 105.09150.22178.27142.35181.59169.02176.65184.62192.96201.67
WACC
PV UFCF 159.37157.04154.75152.50150.27
SUM PV UFCF 773.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) 205.70
Terminal Value 5,066.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,775.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,549.22
Net Debt -957.60
Equity Value 5,506.81
Shares Outstanding 43.99
Equity Value Per Share 125.19