Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI)

$0.7521

-0.10 (-11.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3.04 | 0.7521 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 426.10441.40444.8090.40114.60100.6988.4777.7368.3060.01
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 296.20148.60146.80190.3051.7078.9069.3360.9153.5247.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 258.60108.70106.50152.6016.1058.8351.6945.4139.9035.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 37.6039.9040.3037.7035.6020.0817.6415.5013.6211.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 43.3065.4073.40180.60101.5066.4258.3651.2845.0539.59
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 165161.60177.4016.205336.1331.7427.8924.5021.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 19.301820.7013.7016.308.597.546.635.825.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -13.70-14.30-14-8-5.70-4.72-4.15-3.64-3.20-2.81
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.7,521
Beta 1.758
Diluted Shares Outstanding 79.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 58.87
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.43%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.263
Total Debt 1,097.50
Total Equity 60.07
Total Capital 1,157.57
Debt Weighting 94.81
Equity Weighting 5.19
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 426.10441.40444.8090.40114.60100.6988.4777.7368.3060.01
EBITDA 296.20148.60146.80190.3051.7078.9069.3360.9153.5247.03
EBIT 258.60108.70106.50152.6016.1058.8351.6945.4139.9035.06
Tax Rate 80.22%71.26%63.57%282.17%58.87%111.22%111.22%111.22%111.22%111.22%
EBIAT 51.1431.2438.80-2786.62-6.60-5.80-5.10-4.48-3.93
Depreciation 37.6039.9040.3037.7035.6020.0817.6415.5013.6211.97
Accounts Receivable -3.40-15.80161.20-36.8016.874.383.853.382.97
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --1.302.70-72.60-7.71-1.04-0.92-0.80-0.71
Capital Expenditure -13.70-14.30-14-8-5.70-4.72-4.15-3.64-3.20-2.81
UFCF 75.0458.9452-94.102.3217.9211.049.708.527.49
WACC
PV UFCF 17.4110.428.897.596.48
SUM PV UFCF 50.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7.64
Terminal Value 812.41
Present Value of Terminal Value 702.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 753.61
Net Debt 996.30
Equity Value -242.69
Shares Outstanding 79.87
Equity Value Per Share -3.04