Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

nCino, Inc. (NCNO)

$35.56

-0.09 (-0.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -102.61 | 35.56 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 91.53138.18204.29273.87395.15570.15822.661,186.981,712.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -20.65-22.40-32.39-61.76-76.24-110.01-158.73-229.03-330.46
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -22.11-27.01-39.82-71.77-88.32-127.43-183.86-265.29-382.78
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.464.617.4310.0112.0717.4225.1336.2652.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 74.3591.18371.4288.01356.78514.79742.781,071.731,546.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 29.8343.4155.5274.53116.95168.75243.48351.31506.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ---------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.444.67611.3714.0520.2729.2542.2160.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7.97-5.76-4.34-5.46-16.78-24.21-34.94-50.41-72.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 35.56
Beta 0.802
Diluted Shares Outstanding 89.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 33.14
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.625
Total Debt 14.75
Total Equity 3,187.71
Total Capital 3,202.46
Debt Weighting 0.46
Equity Weighting 99.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 91.53138.18204.29273.87395.15570.15822.661,186.981,712.66
EBITDA -20.65-22.40-32.39-61.76-76.24-110.01-158.73-229.03-330.46
EBIT -22.11-27.01-39.82-71.77-88.32-127.43-183.86-265.29-382.78
Tax Rate -0.88%-1.64%0.36%33.14%7.75%7.75%7.75%7.75%7.75%
EBIAT -22.31-27.45-39.68-47.98-81.47-117.56-169.62-244.74-353.12
Depreciation 1.464.617.4310.0112.0717.4225.1336.2652.32
Accounts Receivable --13.58-12.11-19.01-42.43-51.80-74.73-107.83-155.59
Inventories ---------
Accounts Payable -1.221.335.372.696.228.9812.9618.69
Capital Expenditure -7.96-5.76-4.34-5.46-16.78-24.21-34.94-50.41-72.74
UFCF -28.81-40.96-47.36-57.08-125.93-169.93-245.18-353.76-510.44
WACC
PV UFCF -125.93-159.36-215.64-291.79-394.84
SUM PV UFCF -1,113.72

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.63
Free cash flow (t + 1) -520.64
Terminal Value -11,245.01
Present Value of Terminal Value -8,157.61

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -9,271.33
Net Debt -73.27
Equity Value -9,198.06
Shares Outstanding 89.64
Equity Value Per Share -102.61