Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
nCino, Inc. (NCNO)
$35.56
-0.09 (-0.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 91.53 | 138.18 | 204.29 | 273.87 | 395.15 | 570.15 | 822.66 | 1,186.98 | 1,712.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||
| EBITDA | -20.65 | -22.40 | -32.39 | -61.76 | -76.24 | -110.01 | -158.73 | -229.03 | -330.46 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||
| EBIT | -22.11 | -27.01 | -39.82 | -71.77 | -88.32 | -127.43 | -183.86 | -265.29 | -382.78 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.46 | 4.61 | 7.43 | 10.01 | 12.07 | 17.42 | 25.13 | 36.26 | 52.32 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 74.35 | 91.18 | 371.42 | 88.01 | 356.78 | 514.79 | 742.78 | 1,071.73 | 1,546.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||
| Account Receivables | 29.83 | 43.41 | 55.52 | 74.53 | 116.95 | 168.75 | 243.48 | 351.31 | 506.90 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.44 | 4.67 | 6 | 11.37 | 14.05 | 20.27 | 29.25 | 42.21 | 60.90 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.97 | -5.76 | -4.34 | -5.46 | -16.78 | -24.21 | -34.94 | -50.41 | -72.74 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 35.56 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.802 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 89.64 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 33.14 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.87% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.625 |
| Total Debt | 14.75 |
| Total Equity | 3,187.71 |
| Total Capital | 3,202.46 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.46 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.54 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 91.53 | 138.18 | 204.29 | 273.87 | 395.15 | 570.15 | 822.66 | 1,186.98 | 1,712.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -20.65 | -22.40 | -32.39 | -61.76 | -76.24 | -110.01 | -158.73 | -229.03 | -330.46 |
| EBIT | -22.11 | -27.01 | -39.82 | -71.77 | -88.32 | -127.43 | -183.86 | -265.29 | -382.78 |
| Tax Rate | -0.88% | -1.64% | 0.36% | 33.14% | 7.75% | 7.75% | 7.75% | 7.75% | 7.75% |
| EBIAT | -22.31 | -27.45 | -39.68 | -47.98 | -81.47 | -117.56 | -169.62 | -244.74 | -353.12 |
| Depreciation | 1.46 | 4.61 | 7.43 | 10.01 | 12.07 | 17.42 | 25.13 | 36.26 | 52.32 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -13.58 | -12.11 | -19.01 | -42.43 | -51.80 | -74.73 | -107.83 | -155.59 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.22 | 1.33 | 5.37 | 2.69 | 6.22 | 8.98 | 12.96 | 18.69 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.96 | -5.76 | -4.34 | -5.46 | -16.78 | -24.21 | -34.94 | -50.41 | -72.74 |
| UFCF | -28.81 | -40.96 | -47.36 | -57.08 | -125.93 | -169.93 | -245.18 | -353.76 | -510.44 |
| WACC | |||||||||
| PV UFCF | -125.93 | -159.36 | -215.64 | -291.79 | -394.84 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,113.72 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.63 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -520.64 |
| Terminal Value | -11,245.01 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -8,157.61 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -9,271.33 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -73.27 |
| Equity Value | -9,198.06 |
| Shares Outstanding | 89.64 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -102.61 |