Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aurubis AG (NDA.DE)

79.36 €

+1.40 (+1.80%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 126.07 | 79.36 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	10,423.75	10,763.30	12,428.54	16,372.68	18,520.52	21,464.45	24,876.33	28,830.54	33,413.29	38,724.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	490.98	409.74	595.62	1,056.16	1,172.29	1,120.01	1,298.04	1,504.37	1,743.49	2,020.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	365.58	277.14	385.96	843.59	952.08	836.28	969.21	1,123.27	1,301.82	1,508.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	125.41	132.60	209.65	212.57	220.21	283.73	328.83	381.10	441.68	511.88
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	487.50	456.08	499.01	974.65	766.37	988.22	1,145.31	1,327.36	1,538.35	1,782.88
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,680.43	1,728.14	2,463.77	2,804.21	3,552.92	3,791.12	4,393.73	5,092.14	5,901.56	6,839.64
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	836.75	768.70	1,144.03	1,386.53	1,582.69	1,776.75	2,059.17	2,386.48	2,765.83	3,205.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-168.17	-221.48	-229.95	-252.44	-347.05	-383.66	-444.64	-515.32	-597.23	-692.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 79.36
Beta	1.544
Diluted Shares Outstanding	43.67
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	23.59
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.071
Total Debt	327.50
Total Equity	3,465.97
Total Capital	3,793.47
Debt Weighting	8.63
Equity Weighting	91.37
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	10,423.75	10,763.30	12,428.54	16,372.68	18,520.52	21,464.45	24,876.33	28,830.54	33,413.29	38,724.50
EBITDA	490.98	409.74	595.62	1,056.16	1,172.29	1,120.01	1,298.04	1,504.37	1,743.49	2,020.63
EBIT	365.58	277.14	385.96	843.59	952.08	836.28	969.21	1,123.27	1,301.82	1,508.75
Tax Rate	9.87%	26.70%	27.81%	25.75%	23.59%	22.74%	22.74%	22.74%	22.74%	22.74%
EBIAT	329.48	203.13	278.63	626.38	727.52	646.07	748.77	867.79	1,005.73	1,165.59
Depreciation	125.41	132.60	209.65	212.57	220.21	283.73	328.83	381.10	441.68	511.88
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-47.71	-735.64	-340.44	-748.71	-238.19	-602.62	-698.41	-809.42	-938.08
Accounts Payable	-	-68.05	375.33	242.50	196.17	194.05	282.42	327.31	379.34	439.64
Capital Expenditure	-168.17	-221.48	-229.96	-252.44	-347.05	-383.66	-444.64	-515.32	-597.23	-692.17
UFCF	286.71	-1.51	-101.98	488.57	48.15	502	312.76	362.48	420.09	486.87
WACC
PV UFCF						454.46	256.33	268.95	282.18	296.06
SUM PV UFCF										1,557.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.46
Free cash flow (t + 1)	496.61
Terminal Value	5,870.05
Present Value of Terminal Value	3,569.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	5,127.56
Net Debt	-378.54
Equity Value	5,506.10
Shares Outstanding	43.67
Equity Value Per Share	126.07