Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
New Frontier Health Corporation (NFH)
$11.95
+0.03 (+0.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 329.40 | 379.07 | 361.68 | 380.65 | 400.62 | 421.63 | 443.74 | 467.02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||
| EBITDA | 14.05 | 52.83 | 33.78 | 34.94 | 36.78 | 38.71 | 40.74 | 42.87 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||
| EBIT | -8.13 | 0.11 | -34.25 | -15.11 | -15.90 | -16.74 | -17.61 | -18.54 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||
| Depreciation | 22.18 | 52.71 | 68.03 | 50.05 | 52.68 | 55.44 | 58.35 | 61.41 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2.59 | 216.53 | 102.47 | 109.42 | 115.16 | 121.20 | 127.56 | 134.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | 45.17 | 36.66 | 41.97 | 44.17 | 46.49 | 48.92 | 51.49 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||
| Inventories | - | 9.05 | 14.76 | 12.31 | 12.96 | 13.64 | 14.36 | 15.11 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.35 | 15.85 | 14.25 | 10.44 | 10.99 | 11.56 | 12.17 | 12.81 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -84.90 | -54.68 | -50.08 | -68.57 | -72.17 | -75.96 | -79.94 | -84.13 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 11.95 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.126 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 131.36 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.28 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.04% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 4.381 |
| Total Debt | 599.27 |
| Total Equity | 1,569.72 |
| Total Capital | 2,168.98 |
| Debt Weighting | 27.63 |
| Equity Weighting | 72.37 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 329.40 | 379.07 | 361.68 | 380.65 | 400.62 | 421.63 | 443.74 | 467.02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 14.05 | 52.83 | 33.78 | 34.94 | 36.78 | 38.71 | 40.74 | 42.87 |
| EBIT | -8.13 | 0.11 | -34.25 | -15.11 | -15.90 | -16.74 | -17.61 | -18.54 |
| Tax Rate | -37.86% | -25.31% | -0.28% | -21.15% | -21.15% | -21.15% | -21.15% | -21.15% |
| EBIAT | -11.21 | 0.14 | -34.35 | -18.31 | -19.27 | -20.28 | -21.34 | -22.46 |
| Depreciation | 22.18 | 52.71 | 68.03 | 50.05 | 52.68 | 55.44 | 58.35 | 61.41 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | 8.51 | -5.31 | -2.20 | -2.32 | -2.44 | -2.57 |
| Inventories | - | - | -5.71 | 2.45 | -0.65 | -0.68 | -0.72 | -0.75 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 15.51 | -1.60 | -3.81 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| Capital Expenditure | -84.90 | -54.68 | -50.08 | -68.57 | -72.17 | -75.96 | -79.94 | -84.13 |
| UFCF | -73.93 | 13.68 | -15.20 | -43.50 | -41.06 | -43.21 | -45.48 | -47.86 |
| WACC | ||||||||
| PV UFCF | -45.73 | -41.06 | -41.11 | -41.16 | -41.20 | |||
| SUM PV UFCF | -190.27 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.12 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -48.82 |
| Terminal Value | -1,564.74 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,219.03 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,409.30 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 496.80 |
| Equity Value | -1,906.10 |
| Shares Outstanding | 131.36 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -14.51 |