Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Niu Technologies (NIU)

$4.1

-0.03 (-0.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -99.50 | 4.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 123.10236.45332.21391.09592.73891.851,341.912,019.113,038.064,571.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -27.48-51.5938.7439.5859.92-21.86-32.89-49.48-74.45-112.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -29.04-54.6133.5531.5444.64-37.44-56.34-84.77-127.55-191.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.563.025.198.0415.2815.5923.4535.2953.1079.89
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 31.55114.68122.37176.50172.43330.31497.01747.821,125.211,693.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2.069.9620.6818.1442.9742.8264.4296.93145.85219.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 14.1222.7828.5822.7543.1476.34114.87172.84260.06391.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 19.9939.9541.4463.3386.23136.18204.91308.31463.90698.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.72-8.53-22.56-24.25-45.72-48.75-73.36-110.38-166.08-249.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.1
Beta 0.542
Diluted Shares Outstanding 75.45
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.51%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.363
Total Debt 54.01
Total Equity 309.34
Total Capital 363.35
Debt Weighting 14.86
Equity Weighting 85.14
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 123.10236.45332.21391.09592.73891.851,341.912,019.113,038.064,571.21
EBITDA -27.48-51.5938.7439.5859.92-21.86-32.89-49.48-74.45-112.02
EBIT -29.04-54.6133.5531.5444.64-37.44-56.34-84.77-127.55-191.92
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%4.14%11.11%17.24%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%
EBIAT -29.04-54.6132.1628.0336.95-35.01-52.68-79.26-119.26-179.44
Depreciation 1.563.025.198.0415.2815.5923.4535.2953.1079.89
Accounts Receivable --7.90-10.722.54-24.820.15-21.61-32.51-48.92-73.60
Inventories --8.66-5.805.83-20.40-33.20-38.53-57.97-87.22-131.24
Accounts Payable -19.961.4921.8922.9049.9568.72103.41155.59234.11
Capital Expenditure -3.72-8.53-22.56-24.25-45.72-48.75-73.36-110.38-166.08-249.90
UFCF -31.20-56.73-0.2442.09-15.82-51.27-93.99-141.42-212.79-320.18
WACC
PV UFCF -48.53-84.22-119.96-170.86-243.36
SUM PV UFCF -666.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.64
Free cash flow (t + 1) -326.58
Terminal Value -8,972.06
Present Value of Terminal Value -6,819.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -7,486.41
Net Debt 20.67
Equity Value -7,507.07
Shares Outstanding 75.45
Equity Value Per Share -99.50