Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Nautilus, Inc. (NLS)

$1.73

-0.06 (-3.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -23.40 | 1.73 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 406.18396.75309.29552.56652.55770.64910.101,074.801,269.301,4991,770.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 44.5430.54-90.5582.997.198.4910.0311.8413.9916.5219.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 35.9021.60-101.3673.54-8.45-9.98-11.78-13.92-16.44-19.41-22.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.648.9410.819.4515.6418.4721.8125.7630.4235.9342.43
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 85.2063.5211.0792.7893.57110.50130.50154.11182214.93253.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 42.7051.5055.0795.2495.50112.78133.19157.29185.75219.37259.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 53.3568.4654.7751.1493.57110.50130.50154.11182214.94253.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 66.9087.2774.2596.40130.38153.97181.84214.74253.60299.50353.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.79-10.38-8.95-9.73-13.38-15.81-18.67-22.05-26.04-30.75-36.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.73
Beta 1.595
Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.54
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.27%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.225
Total Debt 55.29
Total Equity 53.68
Total Capital 108.97
Debt Weighting 50.74
Equity Weighting 49.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 406.18396.75309.29552.56652.55770.64910.101,074.801,269.301,4991,770.26
EBITDA 44.5430.54-90.5582.997.198.4910.0311.8413.9916.5219.51
EBIT 35.9021.60-101.3673.54-8.45-9.98-11.78-13.92-16.44-19.41-22.92
Tax Rate 26.43%30.20%8.87%17.72%20.75%20.54%20.75%20.75%20.75%20.75%20.75%
EBIAT 26.4115.08-92.3760.51-6.70-7.93-9.34-11.03-13.02-15.38-18.17
Depreciation 8.648.9410.819.4515.6418.4721.8125.7630.4235.9342.43
Accounts Receivable --8.80-3.57-40.17-0.25-17.28-20.41-24.10-28.46-33.61-39.70
Inventories --15.1113.703.63-42.43-16.93-20-23.62-27.89-32.94-38.90
Accounts Payable -20.37-13.0122.1433.9823.5927.8632.9138.8645.8954.20
Capital Expenditure -3.79-10.38-8.95-9.73-13.38-13.05-18.67-22.05-26.04-30.75-36.31
UFCF 31.2610.10-93.3945.83-13.14-15.89-18.74-22.13-26.13-30.86-36.44
WACC
PV UFCF -13.14-14.89-16.46-18.22-20.17-22.33-24.72
SUM PV UFCF -108.72

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) -37.17
Terminal Value -794.25
Present Value of Terminal Value -574.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -683.56
Net Debt 42.42
Equity Value -725.98
Shares Outstanding 31.03
Equity Value Per Share -23.40