Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Nogin, Inc. (NOGN)
$0.22
+0.01 (+3.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 45.52 | 101.35 | 94.47 | 149.20 | 235.65 | 372.18 | 587.81 | 928.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||
| EBITDA | -0.31 | 2.56 | -49.87 | -25.34 | -40.02 | -63.21 | -99.83 | -157.67 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||
| EBIT | -0.72 | 2.04 | -50.68 | -26.47 | -41.81 | -66.04 | -104.30 | -164.73 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.41 | 0.52 | 0.81 | 1.13 | 1.79 | 2.83 | 4.47 | 7.06 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 16.17 | 1.07 | 15.39 | 26.29 | 41.52 | 65.58 | 103.58 | 163.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||
| Account Receivables | 4.03 | 7.33 | 1.58 | 8.83 | 13.95 | 22.02 | 34.78 | 54.94 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||
| Inventories | 0.14 | 22.78 | 15.73 | 19.61 | 30.97 | 48.91 | 77.24 | 121.99 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 6.32 | 16.10 | 19.60 | 25.12 | 39.68 | 62.67 | 98.98 | 156.33 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.58 | -1.79 | -1.59 | -3.44 | -5.43 | -8.58 | -13.55 | -21.40 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.22 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.486 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2.45 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 1.46 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.76% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.450 |
| Total Debt | 80.44 |
| Total Equity | 0.54 |
| Total Capital | 80.98 |
| Debt Weighting | 99.33 |
| Equity Weighting | 0.67 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 45.52 | 101.35 | 94.47 | 149.20 | 235.65 | 372.18 | 587.81 | 928.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -0.31 | 2.56 | -49.87 | -25.34 | -40.02 | -63.21 | -99.83 | -157.67 |
| EBIT | -0.72 | 2.04 | -50.68 | -26.47 | -41.81 | -66.04 | -104.30 | -164.73 |
| Tax Rate | -20.00% | 105.86% | 1.46% | 29.10% | 29.10% | 29.10% | 29.10% | 29.10% |
| EBIAT | -0.87 | -0.12 | -49.94 | -18.77 | -29.64 | -46.82 | -73.94 | -116.78 |
| Depreciation | 0.41 | 0.52 | 0.81 | 1.13 | 1.79 | 2.83 | 4.47 | 7.06 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -3.31 | 5.75 | -7.25 | -5.12 | -8.08 | -12.76 | -20.15 |
| Inventories | - | -22.64 | 7.05 | -3.88 | -11.36 | -17.94 | -28.33 | -44.75 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 9.78 | 3.51 | 5.52 | 14.56 | 22.99 | 36.31 | 57.35 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.58 | -1.79 | -1.59 | -3.44 | -5.43 | -8.58 | -13.55 | -21.40 |
| UFCF | -2.03 | -17.55 | -34.41 | -26.69 | -35.20 | -55.60 | -87.81 | -138.68 |
| WACC | ||||||||
| PV UFCF | -28.75 | -35.20 | -51.60 | -75.63 | -110.86 | |||
| SUM PV UFCF | -260.16 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.75 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -141.45 |
| Terminal Value | -2,460.08 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,693.80 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,953.96 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 65.06 |
| Equity Value | -2,019.02 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.45 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -823.39 |