Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Novanta Inc. (NOVT)

$119.98

-1.89 (-1.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 32.44 | 119.98 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 521.29614.34626.10590.62706.79766.46831.16901.32977.411,059.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 104.6496.3784.0586.7092.18117.89127.84138.63150.33163.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 73.8859.3245.7748.4048.7970.8776.8683.3490.3898.01
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 30.7637.0538.2838.2943.3947.0150.9855.2859.9565.01
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 100.0682.0478.94125.05117.39127.14137.87149.51162.13175.82
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 81.4883.9591.0875.05115.62111.76121.20131.43142.52154.56
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 91.28104.76116.6292.74125.66132.86144.07156.23169.42183.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 39.7950.7352.5842.9768.5163.2568.5974.3880.6587.46
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9.09-14.66-10.74-13.16-19.98-16.71-18.12-19.65-21.31-23.11
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 119.98
Beta 1.193
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.78
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.40
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.326
Total Debt 497.06
Total Equity 4,293
Total Capital 4,790.07
Debt Weighting 10.38
Equity Weighting 89.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 521.29614.34626.10590.62706.79766.46831.16901.32977.411,059.92
EBITDA 104.6496.3784.0586.7092.18117.89127.84138.63150.33163.02
EBIT 73.8859.3245.7748.4048.7970.8776.8683.3490.3898.01
Tax Rate 21.12%19.89%10.91%8.02%10.40%14.07%14.07%14.07%14.07%14.07%
EBIAT 58.2747.5240.7744.5243.7160.9066.0471.6277.6784.22
Depreciation 30.7637.0538.2838.2943.3947.0150.9855.2859.9565.01
Accounts Receivable --2.47-7.1216.02-40.563.85-9.43-10.23-11.09-12.03
Inventories --13.49-11.8523.88-32.92-7.20-11.22-12.16-13.19-14.30
Accounts Payable -10.941.85-9.6225.55-5.275.345.796.286.81
Capital Expenditure -9.09-14.66-10.74-13.16-19.98-16.71-18.12-19.65-21.31-23.11
UFCF 79.9464.8951.1899.9419.2082.5983.5990.6598.30106.60
WACC
PV UFCF 76.3271.3871.5271.6771.82
SUM PV UFCF 362.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.22
Free cash flow (t + 1) 108.73
Terminal Value 1,748.15
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,177.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,540.42
Net Debt 379.67
Equity Value 1,160.75
Shares Outstanding 35.78
Equity Value Per Share 32.44