Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NRJ Group SA (NRG.PA)

6.38 €

+0.18 (+2.90%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 13.68 | 6.38 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	374.31	411.04	406.56	336.16	378.62	382.45	386.31	390.21	394.15	398.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	50.95	56.31	56.63	76.86	69.70	63.11	63.75	64.39	65.04	65.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	29.16	34.88	33.37	44.73	38.66	36.71	37.08	37.46	37.84	38.22
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	21.79	21.43	23.26	32.13	31.04	26.40	26.67	26.93	27.21	27.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	198.68	220.78	228.86	294	303.33	252.92	255.47	258.05	260.65	263.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	35.18	21.93	23.88	17.61	14.74	22.75	22.98	23.21	23.44	23.68
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	48.33	65.97	72.76	61.23	76.48	65.22	65.88	66.55	67.22	67.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-12.72	-49.16	-16.44	-14.62	-18.25	-21.85	-22.07	-22.30	-22.52	-22.75
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 6.38
Beta	0.436
Diluted Shares Outstanding	79.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.72
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.83%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.975
Total Debt	43.38
Total Equity	509.55
Total Capital	552.94
Debt Weighting	7.85
Equity Weighting	92.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	374.31	411.04	406.56	336.16	378.62	382.45	386.31	390.21	394.15	398.13
EBITDA	50.95	56.31	56.63	76.86	69.70	63.11	63.75	64.39	65.04	65.70
EBIT	29.16	34.88	33.37	44.73	38.66	36.71	37.08	37.46	37.84	38.22
Tax Rate	30.57%	37.37%	33.61%	9.41%	27.72%	27.73%	27.73%	27.73%	27.73%	27.73%
EBIAT	20.25	21.84	22.15	40.52	27.95	26.53	26.80	27.07	27.34	27.62
Depreciation	21.79	21.43	23.26	32.13	31.04	26.40	26.67	26.93	27.21	27.48
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	13.26	-1.96	6.27	2.88	-8.01	-0.23	-0.23	-0.23	-0.24
Accounts Payable	-	17.65	6.78	-11.53	15.26	-11.26	0.66	0.67	0.67	0.68
Capital Expenditure	-12.72	-49.16	-16.45	-14.62	-18.25	-21.85	-22.07	-22.30	-22.52	-22.75
UFCF	29.32	25.02	33.80	52.77	58.88	11.80	31.82	32.14	32.47	32.79
WACC
PV UFCF						11.18	28.55	27.32	26.14	25.01
SUM PV UFCF										118.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.57
Free cash flow (t + 1)	33.45
Terminal Value	936.94
Present Value of Terminal Value	714.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	832.70
Net Debt	-259.94
Equity Value	1,092.65
Shares Outstanding	79.87
Equity Value Per Share	13.68