Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Nexity SA (NXI.PA)

22.18 €

-0.04 (-0.18%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 243.38 | 22.18 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	3,353.98	3,939.58	4,200.73	4,511.65	4,468.37	4,809.43	5,176.53	5,571.64	5,996.91	6,454.64
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	336.72	570.27	529.51	526.04	654.66	610.13	656.70	706.82	760.77	818.84
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	307.99	443.26	325.73	271.36	492.80	435.08	468.28	504.03	542.50	583.91
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	28.73	127.02	203.78	254.67	161.86	175.05	188.41	202.80	218.28	234.94
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	776.41	697.32	1,094.33	1,290	1,061.63	1,147.06	1,234.62	1,328.85	1,430.28	1,539.45
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,763.50	1,440.67	1,555.57	1,603.98	1,811.19	1,945.56	2,094.06	2,253.89	2,425.93	2,611.10
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,071.17	1,619.16	1,726.97	1,678.39	1,699.52	1,821.66	1,960.70	2,110.36	2,271.44	2,444.81
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-33.05	-48.04	-68.81	-82.92	-54.65	-66.41	-71.47	-76.93	-82.80	-89.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 22.18
Beta	1.208
Diluted Shares Outstanding	62.16
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.58
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.665
Total Debt	2,419.82
Total Equity	1,378.75
Total Capital	3,798.57
Debt Weighting	63.70
Equity Weighting	36.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	3,353.98	3,939.58	4,200.73	4,511.65	4,468.37	4,809.43	5,176.53	5,571.64	5,996.91	6,454.64
EBITDA	336.72	570.27	529.51	526.04	654.66	610.13	656.70	706.82	760.77	818.84
EBIT	307.99	443.26	325.73	271.36	492.80	435.08	468.28	504.03	542.50	583.91
Tax Rate	35.20%	30.00%	39.66%	39.77%	25.58%	34.04%	34.04%	34.04%	34.04%	34.04%
EBIAT	199.58	310.28	196.54	163.44	366.75	286.97	308.87	332.45	357.82	385.13
Depreciation	28.73	127.02	203.78	254.67	161.86	175.05	188.41	202.80	218.28	234.94
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	322.83	-114.90	-48.41	-207.22	-134.37	-148.50	-159.83	-172.03	-185.17
Accounts Payable	-	547.99	107.82	-48.59	21.14	122.14	139.04	149.66	161.08	173.37
Capital Expenditure	-33.05	-48.04	-68.81	-82.92	-54.65	-66.41	-71.47	-76.93	-82.80	-89.12
UFCF	195.26	1,260.07	324.44	238.20	287.87	383.39	416.36	448.13	482.34	519.16
WACC
PV UFCF						365.58	378.58	388.56	398.79	409.30
SUM PV UFCF										1,940.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.87
Free cash flow (t + 1)	529.54
Terminal Value	18,450.83
Present Value of Terminal Value	14,546.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	16,487.36
Net Debt	1,358.20
Equity Value	15,129.16
Shares Outstanding	62.16
Equity Value Per Share	243.38