Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR-UN.TO)
$9.53
-0.11 (-1.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 37 | 54.10 | 60.01 | 61.39 | 83.56 | 103.52 | 128.25 | 158.89 | 196.85 | 243.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 22.20 | 48.73 | 54.10 | 46.33 | 108.85 | 92.34 | 114.39 | 141.72 | 175.58 | 217.52 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 22.20 | 48.73 | 54.01 | 46.24 | 108.76 | 92.19 | 114.22 | 141.50 | 175.30 | 217.18 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 4.25 | 3.35 | 7.88 | 13.99 | 82.28 | 31.49 | 39.01 | 48.33 | 59.87 | 74.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 2.24 | 1.88 | 2.87 | 2.94 | 2.75 | 4.64 | 5.74 | 7.12 | 8.82 | 10.92 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.79 | 3.24 | 3.02 | 3.09 | 5.67 | 6.85 | 8.48 | 10.51 | 13.02 | 16.13 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.19 | -3.37 | -4.04 | -5.66 | -5.37 | -6.59 | -8.16 | -10.11 | -12.52 | -15.52 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 9.53 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.239 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 57.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.24% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.376 |
| Total Debt | 679.55 |
| Total Equity | 546.09 |
| Total Capital | 1,225.64 |
| Debt Weighting | 55.44 |
| Equity Weighting | 44.56 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 37 | 54.10 | 60.01 | 61.39 | 83.56 | 103.52 | 128.25 | 158.89 | 196.85 | 243.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 22.20 | 48.73 | 54.10 | 46.33 | 108.85 | 92.34 | 114.39 | 141.72 | 175.58 | 217.52 |
| EBIT | 22.20 | 48.73 | 54.01 | 46.24 | 108.76 | 92.19 | 114.22 | 141.50 | 175.30 | 217.18 |
| Tax Rate | 0.17% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.03% |
| EBIAT | 22.16 | 48.73 | 54.01 | 46.24 | 108.76 | 92.16 | 114.18 | 141.45 | 175.25 | 217.11 |
| Depreciation | - | - | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.36 | -0.99 | -0.08 | 0.20 | -1.89 | -1.11 | -1.37 | -1.70 | -2.11 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.54 | -0.22 | 0.07 | 2.58 | 1.18 | 1.64 | 2.03 | 2.51 | 3.11 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.19 | -3.37 | -4.04 | -5.66 | -5.37 | -6.59 | -8.16 | -10.11 | -12.52 | -15.52 |
| UFCF | 20.97 | 45.18 | 48.86 | 40.66 | 106.25 | 85.01 | 106.72 | 132.22 | 163.81 | 202.94 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 80.64 | 96.03 | 112.86 | 132.63 | 155.86 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 578.02 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.42 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 207 |
| Terminal Value | 6,052.52 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,648.59 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 5,226.61 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 597.27 |
| Equity Value | 4,629.34 |
| Shares Outstanding | 57.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 80.79 |