Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX)
$1.48
+0.03 (+2.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 60.30 | 65.75 | 150.84 | 116.84 | 124.38 | 162.43 | 212.12 | 277.01 | 361.75 | 472.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -10.71 | -4.38 | 14.46 | 8.12 | 9.88 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -12.72 | -6.17 | 12.90 | 6.65 | 8.33 | -3.10 | -4.04 | -5.28 | -6.90 | -9.01 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.01 | 1.78 | 1.56 | 1.48 | 1.55 | 3.12 | 4.07 | 5.32 | 6.94 | 9.07 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 9.42 | 8.73 | 28.75 | 19.39 | 14.47 | 24.75 | 32.32 | 42.21 | 55.12 | 71.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 10.65 | 18.55 | 10.99 | 16.50 | 15.91 | 26.01 | 33.97 | 44.36 | 57.92 | 75.64 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 7.83 | 13.40 | 14.51 | 19.55 | 19.83 | 24.58 | 32.10 | 41.92 | 54.74 | 71.48 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 11.68 | 19.71 | 19.83 | 17.05 | 9.85 | 27.61 | 36.06 | 47.09 | 61.49 | 80.30 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.58 | -0.45 | -0.94 | -0.95 | -0.53 | -1.14 | -1.49 | -1.95 | -2.55 | -3.33 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.48 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.938 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31.29 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.17 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.92% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.844 |
| Total Debt | 3.07 |
| Total Equity | 46.32 |
| Total Capital | 49.39 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.22 |
| Equity Weighting | 93.78 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 60.30 | 65.75 | 150.84 | 116.84 | 124.38 | 162.43 | 212.12 | 277.01 | 361.75 | 472.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -10.71 | -4.38 | 14.46 | 8.12 | 9.88 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| EBIT | -12.72 | -6.17 | 12.90 | 6.65 | 8.33 | -3.10 | -4.04 | -5.28 | -6.90 | -9.01 |
| Tax Rate | 0.11% | -0.21% | 1.26% | -300.95% | 26.17% | -54.72% | -54.72% | -54.72% | -54.72% | -54.72% |
| EBIAT | -12.70 | -6.18 | 12.74 | 26.64 | 6.15 | -4.79 | -6.26 | -8.17 | -10.67 | -13.94 |
| Depreciation | 2.01 | 1.78 | 1.56 | 1.48 | 1.55 | 3.12 | 4.07 | 5.32 | 6.94 | 9.07 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -7.90 | 7.56 | -5.51 | 0.60 | -10.10 | -7.96 | -10.39 | -13.57 | -17.72 |
| Inventories | - | -5.58 | -1.10 | -5.05 | -0.28 | -4.75 | -7.52 | -9.82 | -12.82 | -16.74 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 8.03 | 0.13 | -2.79 | -7.19 | 17.76 | 8.45 | 11.03 | 14.40 | 18.81 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.58 | -0.45 | -0.94 | -0.95 | -0.53 | -1.14 | -1.49 | -1.95 | -2.55 | -3.33 |
| UFCF | -11.28 | -10.30 | 19.94 | 13.82 | 0.30 | 0.09 | -10.71 | -13.98 | -18.26 | -23.85 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 0.08 | -8.51 | -9.91 | -11.54 | -13.44 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -43.32 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.16 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -24.32 |
| Terminal Value | -239.42 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -134.89 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -178.21 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -11.39 |
| Equity Value | -166.81 |
| Shares Outstanding | 31.29 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -5.33 |