Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Organon & Co. (OGN)
$29.76
-0.65 (-2.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,530 | 8,096 | 6,304 | 5,132.04 | 4,177.95 | 3,401.23 | 2,768.92 | 2,254.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||
| EBITDA | 3,909 | 2,837 | 1,982 | 1,838.98 | 1,497.10 | 1,218.78 | 992.20 | 807.74 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||
| EBIT | 3,555 | 2,680 | 1,787 | 1,689.35 | 1,375.28 | 1,119.61 | 911.46 | 742.02 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||
| Depreciation | 354 | 157 | 195 | 149.63 | 121.82 | 99.17 | 80.73 | 65.72 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 319 | 500 | 737 | 362.91 | 295.44 | 240.51 | 195.80 | 159.40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,487 | 1,092 | 1,382 | 872.69 | 710.45 | 578.37 | 470.85 | 383.31 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||
| Inventories | 1,071 | 913 | 915 | 633.46 | 515.70 | 419.83 | 341.78 | 278.24 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 258 | 259 | 1,382 | 476.06 | 387.56 | 315.51 | 256.85 | 209.10 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -109 | -278 | -488 | -210.73 | -171.56 | -139.66 | -113.70 | -92.56 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 29.76 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.000 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 254.19 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 11.64 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.49% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.532 |
| Total Debt | 9,134 |
| Total Equity | 7,564.77 |
| Total Capital | 16,698.77 |
| Debt Weighting | 54.70 |
| Equity Weighting | 45.30 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,530 | 8,096 | 6,304 | 5,132.04 | 4,177.95 | 3,401.23 | 2,768.92 | 2,254.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3,909 | 2,837 | 1,982 | 1,838.98 | 1,497.10 | 1,218.78 | 992.20 | 807.74 |
| EBIT | 3,555 | 2,680 | 1,787 | 1,689.35 | 1,375.28 | 1,119.61 | 911.46 | 742.02 |
| Tax Rate | 9.48% | 19.40% | 11.64% | 13.51% | 13.51% | 13.51% | 13.51% | 13.51% |
| EBIAT | 3,218 | 2,160 | 1,578.96 | 1,461.15 | 1,189.51 | 968.37 | 788.34 | 641.78 |
| Depreciation | 354 | 157 | 195 | 149.63 | 121.82 | 99.17 | 80.73 | 65.72 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 395 | -290 | 509.31 | 162.24 | 132.08 | 107.52 | 87.53 |
| Inventories | - | 158 | -2 | 281.54 | 117.77 | 95.87 | 78.05 | 63.54 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1 | 1,123 | -905.94 | -88.50 | -72.05 | -58.66 | -47.75 |
| Capital Expenditure | -109 | -278 | -488 | -210.73 | -171.56 | -139.66 | -113.70 | -92.56 |
| UFCF | 3,463 | 2,593 | 2,116.96 | 1,284.96 | 1,331.27 | 1,083.78 | 882.30 | 718.27 |
| WACC | ||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,323 | 1,331.27 | 1,052.62 | 832.29 | 658.08 | |||
| SUM PV UFCF | 4,902.73 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 2.96 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 732.63 |
| Terminal Value | 76,316.11 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 65,958.93 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 70,861.66 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 8,397 |
| Equity Value | 62,464.66 |
| Shares Outstanding | 254.19 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 245.74 |