Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Organon & Co. (OGN)

$29.76

-0.65 (-2.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 245.74 | 29.76 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 9,5308,0966,3045,132.044,177.953,401.232,768.922,254.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,9092,8371,9821,838.981,497.101,218.78992.20807.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,5552,6801,7871,689.351,375.281,119.61911.46742.02
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 354157195149.63121.8299.1780.7365.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 319500737362.91295.44240.51195.80159.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,4871,0921,382872.69710.45578.37470.85383.31
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,071913915633.46515.70419.83341.78278.24
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2582591,382476.06387.56315.51256.85209.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -109-278-488-210.73-171.56-139.66-113.70-92.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.76
Beta 0.000
Diluted Shares Outstanding 254.19
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.64
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.49%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.532
Total Debt 9,134
Total Equity 7,564.77
Total Capital 16,698.77
Debt Weighting 54.70
Equity Weighting 45.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 9,5308,0966,3045,132.044,177.953,401.232,768.922,254.15
EBITDA 3,9092,8371,9821,838.981,497.101,218.78992.20807.74
EBIT 3,5552,6801,7871,689.351,375.281,119.61911.46742.02
Tax Rate 9.48%19.40%11.64%13.51%13.51%13.51%13.51%13.51%
EBIAT 3,2182,1601,578.961,461.151,189.51968.37788.34641.78
Depreciation 354157195149.63121.8299.1780.7365.72
Accounts Receivable -395-290509.31162.24132.08107.5287.53
Inventories -158-2281.54117.7795.8778.0563.54
Accounts Payable -11,123-905.94-88.50-72.05-58.66-47.75
Capital Expenditure -109-278-488-210.73-171.56-139.66-113.70-92.56
UFCF 3,4632,5932,116.961,284.961,331.271,083.78882.30718.27
WACC
PV UFCF 1,3231,331.271,052.62832.29658.08
SUM PV UFCF 4,902.73

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) 732.63
Terminal Value 76,316.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 65,958.93

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 70,861.66
Net Debt 8,397
Equity Value 62,464.66
Shares Outstanding 254.19
Equity Value Per Share 245.74