Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aura Minerals Inc. (ORA.TO)

$9.4

-0.14 (-1.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 30.95 | 9.4 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 157.71157.70226.20299.87444.56582.65763.631,000.831,311.711,719.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 17.9259.6619.9583.01149.80139.13182.34238.98313.21410.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 17.9259.6619.9582.87149.59138.85181.99238.51312.60409.70
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---0.140.210.270.350.460.610.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 11.7920.6638.87117.78161.49132.10173.13226.90297.39389.76
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13.1624.3731.4735.7642.4068.9690.38118.45155.25203.47
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 38.4934.4633.5446.5456.55104.09136.42178.79234.33307.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 20.5931.4934.6338.3539.6381.62106.97140.20183.75240.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8.81-31.50-25.79-51.97-79.47-84.10-110.22-144.46-189.33-248.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.4
Beta 0.197
Diluted Shares Outstanding 67.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 55.94
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.697
Total Debt 159.14
Total Equity 638.38
Total Capital 797.52
Debt Weighting 19.95
Equity Weighting 80.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 157.71157.70226.20299.87444.56582.65763.631,000.831,311.711,719.15
EBITDA 17.9259.6619.9583.01149.80139.13182.34238.98313.21410.50
EBIT 17.9259.6619.9582.87149.59138.85181.99238.51312.60409.70
Tax Rate 35.29%9.42%-62.19%9.28%55.94%9.55%9.55%9.55%9.55%9.55%
EBIAT 11.6054.0432.3575.1865.91125.60164.61215.74282.75370.58
Depreciation ---0.140.210.270.350.460.610.80
Accounts Receivable --11.21-7.10-4.29-6.64-26.56-21.42-28.07-36.79-48.22
Inventories -4.030.92-13.01-10.01-47.53-32.33-42.37-55.54-72.79
Accounts Payable -10.903.143.711.2841.9925.3533.2343.5557.08
Capital Expenditure -8.81-31.50-25.79-51.97-79.47-84.10-110.22-144.46-189.33-248.14
UFCF 2.7926.253.539.76-28.729.6726.3434.5245.2559.30
WACC
PV UFCF 9.2524.1330.2637.9647.61
SUM PV UFCF 149.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.49
Free cash flow (t + 1) 60.49
Terminal Value 2,429.28
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,950.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,099.52
Net Debt -2.35
Equity Value 2,101.87
Shares Outstanding 67.91
Equity Value Per Share 30.95