Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
USU Software AG (OSP2.DE)
21 €
+0.20 (+0.96%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 84.36 | 90.49 | 95.63 | 107.33 | 111.90 | 120.14 | 128.98 | 138.48 | 148.67 | 159.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 6.73 | 5.61 | 9.92 | 13.24 | 14.56 | 11.99 | 12.87 | 13.82 | 14.83 | 15.93 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 3.11 | 2.81 | 4.05 | 6.88 | 9.83 | 6.30 | 6.77 | 7.27 | 7.80 | 8.37 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.61 | 2.80 | 5.87 | 6.36 | 4.73 | 5.68 | 6.10 | 6.55 | 7.03 | 7.55 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 15.73 | 10.48 | 10.55 | 18.77 | 24.58 | 19.39 | 20.82 | 22.36 | 24 | 25.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.57 | 3.69 | 4.78 | 4.17 | 4.46 | 5.09 | 5.46 | 5.86 | 6.30 | 6.76 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.37 | -1.14 | -1.85 | -2.45 | -0.86 | -1.89 | -2.03 | -2.18 | -2.34 | -2.52 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.114 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 30.54 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.43% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.884 |
| Total Debt | 16.82 |
| Total Equity | 2,257.21 |
| Total Capital | 2,274.03 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.74 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.26 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 84.36 | 90.49 | 95.63 | 107.33 | 111.90 | 120.14 | 128.98 | 138.48 | 148.67 | 159.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 6.73 | 5.61 | 9.92 | 13.24 | 14.56 | 11.99 | 12.87 | 13.82 | 14.83 | 15.93 |
| EBIT | 3.11 | 2.81 | 4.05 | 6.88 | 9.83 | 6.30 | 6.77 | 7.27 | 7.80 | 8.37 |
| Tax Rate | -8.16% | 65.81% | -30.20% | 19.34% | 30.54% | 15.47% | 15.47% | 15.47% | 15.47% | 15.47% |
| EBIAT | 3.37 | 0.96 | 5.27 | 5.55 | 6.83 | 5.33 | 5.72 | 6.14 | 6.59 | 7.08 |
| Depreciation | 3.61 | 2.80 | 5.87 | 6.36 | 4.73 | 5.68 | 6.10 | 6.55 | 7.03 | 7.55 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.03 | -0.02 | -0.15 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.12 | 1.09 | -0.61 | 0.28 | 0.63 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.38 | -1.15 | -1.85 | -2.45 | -0.85 | -1.89 | -2.03 | -2.18 | -2.34 | -2.52 |
| UFCF | 5.61 | 2.78 | 10.46 | 8.88 | 10.96 | 9.60 | 10.13 | 10.87 | 11.67 | 12.53 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 8.82 | 8.55 | 8.44 | 8.32 | 8.21 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 42.35 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.82 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 12.78 |
| Terminal Value | 187.43 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 122.83 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 165.18 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -7.46 |
| Equity Value | 172.64 |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 1.61 |