Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)

$15.27

+0.08 (+0.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 99.98 | 15.27 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 34,05533,66923,29042,04357,34269,519.7884,283.78102,183.21123,883.97150,193.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,5311,7734,2752,0331,7455,413.126,562.717,956.459,646.1611,694.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,0111,1723,6221,2597804,072.844,937.795,986.447,257.788,799.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5206016537749651,340.291,624.921,970.012,388.382,895.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 664522449401304.38369.03447.40542.41657.60
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,4543,6142,5534,7053,9076,521.817,906.859,586.0411,621.8314,089.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6406046477837291,332.691,615.711,958.852,374.852,879.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,7043,6862,4374,8104,0446,652.308,065.069,777.8411,854.3714,371.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,634-1,181-738-336-455-1,816.86-2,202.71-2,670.50-3,237.63-3,925.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 15.27
Beta 1.661
Diluted Shares Outstanding 701
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.82
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.465
Total Debt 7,595
Total Equity 10,704.27
Total Capital 18,299.27
Debt Weighting 41.50
Equity Weighting 58.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 34,05533,66923,29042,04357,34269,519.7884,283.78102,183.21123,883.97150,193.35
EBITDA 2,5311,7734,2752,0331,7455,413.126,562.717,956.459,646.1611,694.73
EBIT 2,0111,1723,6221,2597804,072.844,937.795,986.447,257.788,799.12
Tax Rate 8.20%3.34%0.73%17.75%26.82%11.37%11.37%11.37%11.37%11.37%
EBIAT 1,846.051,132.863,595.521,035.49570.833,609.814,376.445,305.866,432.687,798.79
Depreciation 5206016537749651,340.291,624.921,970.012,388.382,895.61
Accounts Receivable --1,1601,061-2,152798-2,614.81-1,385.04-1,679.19-2,035.80-2,468.14
Inventories -36-43-13654-603.69-283.02-343.13-416-504.35
Accounts Payable -982-1,2492,373-7662,608.301,412.761,712.782,076.532,517.53
Capital Expenditure -1,634-1,181-738-336-455-1,816.86-2,202.71-2,670.50-3,237.63-3,925.21
UFCF 732.05410.863,279.521,558.491,166.832,523.053,543.344,295.845,208.166,314.22
WACC
PV UFCF 2,316.642,987.293,325.413,701.804,120.79
SUM PV UFCF 16,451.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6,440.50
Terminal Value 93,205.55
Present Value of Terminal Value 60,827.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 77,279.85
Net Debt 7,194
Equity Value 70,085.85
Shares Outstanding 701
Equity Value Per Share 99.98