Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)

$13.88

+0.26 (+1.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 25.02 | 13.88 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 34,05533,66923,29042,07857,34269,525.0684,296.58102,206.50123,921.61150,250.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,3653,263-1,5201,8652,5963,059.873,709.984,498.225,453.936,612.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,8452,662-2,1731,0911,6311,719.702,085.072,528.073,065.193,716.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5206016537749651,340.171,624.911,970.152,388.732,896.25
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 6645224493,4851,052.131,275.671,546.701,875.322,273.76
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,4543,6142,5534,7055,746.146,966.988,447.2110,241.9312,417.9715,056.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6406046477832841,224.671,484.861,800.342,182.852,646.62
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,7043,6862,4374,8105,846.417,088.558,594.6110,420.6512,634.6515,319.05
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,634-1,181-738-336-455-1,816.90-2,202.93-2,670.97-3,238.45-3,926.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.88
Beta 1.659
Diluted Shares Outstanding 701
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.82
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.613
Total Debt 7,595
Total Equity 9,729.88
Total Capital 17,324.88
Debt Weighting 43.84
Equity Weighting 56.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 34,05533,66923,29042,07857,34269,525.0684,296.58102,206.50123,921.61150,250.39
EBITDA 3,3653,263-1,5201,8652,5963,059.873,709.984,498.225,453.936,612.68
EBIT 2,8452,662-2,1731,0911,6311,719.702,085.072,528.073,065.193,716.44
Tax Rate 8.20%3.34%0.35%17.75%26.82%11.29%11.29%11.29%11.29%11.29%
EBIAT 2,611.652,573.11-2,165.48897.311,193.611,525.521,849.632,242.612,719.093,296.79
Depreciation 5206016537749651,340.171,624.911,970.152,388.732,896.25
Accounts Receivable --1,1601,061-2,152-1,041.14-1,220.84-1,480.23-1,794.72-2,176.03-2,638.36
Inventories -36-43-136499-940.67-260.20-315.48-382.51-463.77
Accounts Payable -982-1,2492,3731,036.411,242.151,506.061,826.042,2142,684.40
Capital Expenditure -1,634-1,181-738-336-455-1,816.90-2,202.93-2,670.97-3,238.45-3,926.51
UFCF 1,497.651,851.11-2,481.471,420.312,197.88129.421,037.251,257.631,524.831,848.80
WACC
PV UFCF 119.58885.50991.991,111.301,244.95
SUM PV UFCF 4,353.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.23
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,885.77
Terminal Value 30,269.20
Present Value of Terminal Value 20,382.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 24,736.06
Net Debt 7,194
Equity Value 17,542.06
Shares Outstanding 701
Equity Value Per Share 25.02