Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)

$15.27

+0.08 (+0.53%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 99.98 | 15.27 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	34,055	33,669	23,290	42,043	57,342	69,519.78	84,283.78	102,183.21	123,883.97	150,193.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,531	1,773	4,275	2,033	1,745	5,413.12	6,562.71	7,956.45	9,646.16	11,694.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,011	1,172	3,622	1,259	780	4,072.84	4,937.79	5,986.44	7,257.78	8,799.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	520	601	653	774	965	1,340.29	1,624.92	1,970.01	2,388.38	2,895.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	66	45	22	449	401	304.38	369.03	447.40	542.41	657.60
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	2,454	3,614	2,553	4,705	3,907	6,521.81	7,906.85	9,586.04	11,621.83	14,089.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	640	604	647	783	729	1,332.69	1,615.71	1,958.85	2,374.85	2,879.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,704	3,686	2,437	4,810	4,044	6,652.30	8,065.06	9,777.84	11,854.37	14,371.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,634	-1,181	-738	-336	-455	-1,816.86	-2,202.71	-2,670.50	-3,237.63	-3,925.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 15.27
Beta	1.661
Diluted Shares Outstanding	701
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.82
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	12.465
Total Debt	7,595
Total Equity	10,704.27
Total Capital	18,299.27
Debt Weighting	41.50
Equity Weighting	58.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	34,055	33,669	23,290	42,043	57,342	69,519.78	84,283.78	102,183.21	123,883.97	150,193.35
EBITDA	2,531	1,773	4,275	2,033	1,745	5,413.12	6,562.71	7,956.45	9,646.16	11,694.73
EBIT	2,011	1,172	3,622	1,259	780	4,072.84	4,937.79	5,986.44	7,257.78	8,799.12
Tax Rate	8.20%	3.34%	0.73%	17.75%	26.82%	11.37%	11.37%	11.37%	11.37%	11.37%
EBIAT	1,846.05	1,132.86	3,595.52	1,035.49	570.83	3,609.81	4,376.44	5,305.86	6,432.68	7,798.79
Depreciation	520	601	653	774	965	1,340.29	1,624.92	1,970.01	2,388.38	2,895.61
Accounts Receivable	-	-1,160	1,061	-2,152	798	-2,614.81	-1,385.04	-1,679.19	-2,035.80	-2,468.14
Inventories	-	36	-43	-136	54	-603.69	-283.02	-343.13	-416	-504.35
Accounts Payable	-	982	-1,249	2,373	-766	2,608.30	1,412.76	1,712.78	2,076.53	2,517.53
Capital Expenditure	-1,634	-1,181	-738	-336	-455	-1,816.86	-2,202.71	-2,670.50	-3,237.63	-3,925.21
UFCF	732.05	410.86	3,279.52	1,558.49	1,166.83	2,523.05	3,543.34	4,295.84	5,208.16	6,314.22
WACC
PV UFCF						2,316.64	2,987.29	3,325.41	3,701.80	4,120.79
SUM PV UFCF										16,451.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.91
Free cash flow (t + 1)	6,440.50
Terminal Value	93,205.55
Present Value of Terminal Value	60,827.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	77,279.85
Net Debt	7,194
Equity Value	70,085.85
Shares Outstanding	701
Equity Value Per Share	99.98