Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)

$10.1

+0.28 (+2.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 15.13 | 10.1 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 26,22334,05533,66923,29042,04350,286.2060,145.6271,938.1386,042.76102,912.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,0363,3653,263-1,5201,4402,437.402,915.303,486.894,170.554,988.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,4102,8452,662-2,1736661,397.091,671.011,998.642,390.512,859.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6265206016537741,040.311,244.281,488.251,780.042,129.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 3766453,7864,2542,699.633,228.943,862.024,619.235,524.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3,0292,4543,6142,5534,251.875,085.526,082.627,275.218,701.6410,407.73
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 713640604647253982.801,175.491,405.961,681.622,011.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,4572,7043,6862,4374,470.715,347.276,395.687,649.669,149.5010,943.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,024-1,634-1,181-738-336-1,627.13-1,946.15-2,327.73-2,784.12-3,329.99
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.1
Beta 1.789
Diluted Shares Outstanding 716
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.75
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.331
Total Debt 8,737
Total Equity 7,231.60
Total Capital 15,968.60
Debt Weighting 54.71
Equity Weighting 45.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 26,22334,05533,66923,29042,04350,286.2060,145.6271,938.1386,042.76102,912.82
EBITDA 2,0363,3653,263-1,5201,4402,437.402,915.303,486.894,170.554,988.25
EBIT 1,4102,8452,662-2,1736661,397.091,671.011,998.642,390.512,859.20
Tax Rate 5.10%8.20%3.34%0.35%17.75%6.95%6.95%6.95%6.95%6.95%
EBIAT 1,338.092,611.652,573.11-2,165.48547.761,300.021,554.911,859.772,224.412,660.54
Depreciation 6265206016537741,040.311,244.281,488.251,780.042,129.05
Accounts Receivable -575-1,1601,061-1,698.87-833.65-997.10-1,192.60-1,426.42-1,706.10
Inventories -7336-43394-729.80-192.69-230.47-275.66-329.71
Accounts Payable --753982-1,2492,033.71876.551,048.421,253.981,499.841,793.91
Capital Expenditure -1,024-1,634-1,181-738-336-1,627.13-1,946.15-2,327.73-2,784.12-3,329.99
UFCF 940.091,392.651,851.11-2,481.471,714.6026.31711.66851.201,018.091,217.70
WACC
PV UFCF 24.51617.20687.48765.76852.95
SUM PV UFCF 2,947.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.38
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,242.05
Terminal Value 23,086.52
Present Value of Terminal Value 16,171.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19,119.06
Net Debt 8,288
Equity Value 10,831.06
Shares Outstanding 716
Equity Value Per Share 15.13