Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)
$10.1
+0.28 (+2.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 26,223 | 34,055 | 33,669 | 23,290 | 42,043 | 50,286.20 | 60,145.62 | 71,938.13 | 86,042.76 | 102,912.82 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 2,036 | 3,365 | 3,263 | -1,520 | 1,440 | 2,437.40 | 2,915.30 | 3,486.89 | 4,170.55 | 4,988.25 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,410 | 2,845 | 2,662 | -2,173 | 666 | 1,397.09 | 1,671.01 | 1,998.64 | 2,390.51 | 2,859.20 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 626 | 520 | 601 | 653 | 774 | 1,040.31 | 1,244.28 | 1,488.25 | 1,780.04 | 2,129.05 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 37 | 66 | 45 | 3,786 | 4,254 | 2,699.63 | 3,228.94 | 3,862.02 | 4,619.23 | 5,524.91 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 3,029 | 2,454 | 3,614 | 2,553 | 4,251.87 | 5,085.52 | 6,082.62 | 7,275.21 | 8,701.64 | 10,407.73 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 713 | 640 | 604 | 647 | 253 | 982.80 | 1,175.49 | 1,405.96 | 1,681.62 | 2,011.33 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 3,457 | 2,704 | 3,686 | 2,437 | 4,470.71 | 5,347.27 | 6,395.68 | 7,649.66 | 9,149.50 | 10,943.40 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,024 | -1,634 | -1,181 | -738 | -336 | -1,627.13 | -1,946.15 | -2,327.73 | -2,784.12 | -3,329.99 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 10.1 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.789 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 716 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 17.75 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.11% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.331 |
Total Debt | 8,737 |
Total Equity | 7,231.60 |
Total Capital | 15,968.60 |
Debt Weighting | 54.71 |
Equity Weighting | 45.29 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 26,223 | 34,055 | 33,669 | 23,290 | 42,043 | 50,286.20 | 60,145.62 | 71,938.13 | 86,042.76 | 102,912.82 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 2,036 | 3,365 | 3,263 | -1,520 | 1,440 | 2,437.40 | 2,915.30 | 3,486.89 | 4,170.55 | 4,988.25 |
EBIT | 1,410 | 2,845 | 2,662 | -2,173 | 666 | 1,397.09 | 1,671.01 | 1,998.64 | 2,390.51 | 2,859.20 |
Tax Rate | 5.10% | 8.20% | 3.34% | 0.35% | 17.75% | 6.95% | 6.95% | 6.95% | 6.95% | 6.95% |
EBIAT | 1,338.09 | 2,611.65 | 2,573.11 | -2,165.48 | 547.76 | 1,300.02 | 1,554.91 | 1,859.77 | 2,224.41 | 2,660.54 |
Depreciation | 626 | 520 | 601 | 653 | 774 | 1,040.31 | 1,244.28 | 1,488.25 | 1,780.04 | 2,129.05 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 575 | -1,160 | 1,061 | -1,698.87 | -833.65 | -997.10 | -1,192.60 | -1,426.42 | -1,706.10 |
Inventories | - | 73 | 36 | -43 | 394 | -729.80 | -192.69 | -230.47 | -275.66 | -329.71 |
Accounts Payable | - | -753 | 982 | -1,249 | 2,033.71 | 876.55 | 1,048.42 | 1,253.98 | 1,499.84 | 1,793.91 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,024 | -1,634 | -1,181 | -738 | -336 | -1,627.13 | -1,946.15 | -2,327.73 | -2,784.12 | -3,329.99 |
UFCF | 940.09 | 1,392.65 | 1,851.11 | -2,481.47 | 1,714.60 | 26.31 | 711.66 | 851.20 | 1,018.09 | 1,217.70 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 24.51 | 617.20 | 687.48 | 765.76 | 852.95 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 2,947.90 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.38 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,242.05 |
Terminal Value | 23,086.52 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 16,171.17 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 19,119.06 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 8,288 |
Equity Value | 10,831.06 |
Shares Outstanding | 716 |
Equity Value Per Share | 15.13 |