Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)
$15.27
+0.08 (+0.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 34,055 | 33,669 | 23,290 | 42,043 | 57,342 | 69,519.78 | 84,283.78 | 102,183.21 | 123,883.97 | 150,193.35 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 2,531 | 1,773 | 4,275 | 2,033 | 1,745 | 5,413.12 | 6,562.71 | 7,956.45 | 9,646.16 | 11,694.73 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 2,011 | 1,172 | 3,622 | 1,259 | 780 | 4,072.84 | 4,937.79 | 5,986.44 | 7,257.78 | 8,799.12 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 520 | 601 | 653 | 774 | 965 | 1,340.29 | 1,624.92 | 1,970.01 | 2,388.38 | 2,895.61 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 66 | 45 | 22 | 449 | 401 | 304.38 | 369.03 | 447.40 | 542.41 | 657.60 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,454 | 3,614 | 2,553 | 4,705 | 3,907 | 6,521.81 | 7,906.85 | 9,586.04 | 11,621.83 | 14,089.97 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 640 | 604 | 647 | 783 | 729 | 1,332.69 | 1,615.71 | 1,958.85 | 2,374.85 | 2,879.20 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2,704 | 3,686 | 2,437 | 4,810 | 4,044 | 6,652.30 | 8,065.06 | 9,777.84 | 11,854.37 | 14,371.90 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,634 | -1,181 | -738 | -336 | -455 | -1,816.86 | -2,202.71 | -2,670.50 | -3,237.63 | -3,925.21 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 15.27 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.661 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 701 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 26.82 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.90% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 12.465 |
Total Debt | 7,595 |
Total Equity | 10,704.27 |
Total Capital | 18,299.27 |
Debt Weighting | 41.50 |
Equity Weighting | 58.50 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 34,055 | 33,669 | 23,290 | 42,043 | 57,342 | 69,519.78 | 84,283.78 | 102,183.21 | 123,883.97 | 150,193.35 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 2,531 | 1,773 | 4,275 | 2,033 | 1,745 | 5,413.12 | 6,562.71 | 7,956.45 | 9,646.16 | 11,694.73 |
EBIT | 2,011 | 1,172 | 3,622 | 1,259 | 780 | 4,072.84 | 4,937.79 | 5,986.44 | 7,257.78 | 8,799.12 |
Tax Rate | 8.20% | 3.34% | 0.73% | 17.75% | 26.82% | 11.37% | 11.37% | 11.37% | 11.37% | 11.37% |
EBIAT | 1,846.05 | 1,132.86 | 3,595.52 | 1,035.49 | 570.83 | 3,609.81 | 4,376.44 | 5,305.86 | 6,432.68 | 7,798.79 |
Depreciation | 520 | 601 | 653 | 774 | 965 | 1,340.29 | 1,624.92 | 1,970.01 | 2,388.38 | 2,895.61 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -1,160 | 1,061 | -2,152 | 798 | -2,614.81 | -1,385.04 | -1,679.19 | -2,035.80 | -2,468.14 |
Inventories | - | 36 | -43 | -136 | 54 | -603.69 | -283.02 | -343.13 | -416 | -504.35 |
Accounts Payable | - | 982 | -1,249 | 2,373 | -766 | 2,608.30 | 1,412.76 | 1,712.78 | 2,076.53 | 2,517.53 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,634 | -1,181 | -738 | -336 | -455 | -1,816.86 | -2,202.71 | -2,670.50 | -3,237.63 | -3,925.21 |
UFCF | 732.05 | 410.86 | 3,279.52 | 1,558.49 | 1,166.83 | 2,523.05 | 3,543.34 | 4,295.84 | 5,208.16 | 6,314.22 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 2,316.64 | 2,987.29 | 3,325.41 | 3,701.80 | 4,120.79 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 16,451.93 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.91 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 6,440.50 |
Terminal Value | 93,205.55 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 60,827.92 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 77,279.85 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 7,194 |
Equity Value | 70,085.85 |
Shares Outstanding | 701 |
Equity Value Per Share | 99.98 |