Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)
$13.88
+0.26 (+1.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 34,055 | 33,669 | 23,290 | 42,078 | 57,342 | 69,525.06 | 84,296.58 | 102,206.50 | 123,921.61 | 150,250.39 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 3,365 | 3,263 | -1,520 | 1,865 | 2,596 | 3,059.87 | 3,709.98 | 4,498.22 | 5,453.93 | 6,612.68 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 2,845 | 2,662 | -2,173 | 1,091 | 1,631 | 1,719.70 | 2,085.07 | 2,528.07 | 3,065.19 | 3,716.44 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 520 | 601 | 653 | 774 | 965 | 1,340.17 | 1,624.91 | 1,970.15 | 2,388.73 | 2,896.25 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 66 | 45 | 22 | 449 | 3,485 | 1,052.13 | 1,275.67 | 1,546.70 | 1,875.32 | 2,273.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,454 | 3,614 | 2,553 | 4,705 | 5,746.14 | 6,966.98 | 8,447.21 | 10,241.93 | 12,417.97 | 15,056.33 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 640 | 604 | 647 | 783 | 284 | 1,224.67 | 1,484.86 | 1,800.34 | 2,182.85 | 2,646.62 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2,704 | 3,686 | 2,437 | 4,810 | 5,846.41 | 7,088.55 | 8,594.61 | 10,420.65 | 12,634.65 | 15,319.05 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,634 | -1,181 | -738 | -336 | -455 | -1,816.90 | -2,202.93 | -2,670.97 | -3,238.45 | -3,926.51 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 13.88 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.659 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 701 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 26.82 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.90% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.613 |
Total Debt | 7,595 |
Total Equity | 9,729.88 |
Total Capital | 17,324.88 |
Debt Weighting | 43.84 |
Equity Weighting | 56.16 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 34,055 | 33,669 | 23,290 | 42,078 | 57,342 | 69,525.06 | 84,296.58 | 102,206.50 | 123,921.61 | 150,250.39 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 3,365 | 3,263 | -1,520 | 1,865 | 2,596 | 3,059.87 | 3,709.98 | 4,498.22 | 5,453.93 | 6,612.68 |
EBIT | 2,845 | 2,662 | -2,173 | 1,091 | 1,631 | 1,719.70 | 2,085.07 | 2,528.07 | 3,065.19 | 3,716.44 |
Tax Rate | 8.20% | 3.34% | 0.35% | 17.75% | 26.82% | 11.29% | 11.29% | 11.29% | 11.29% | 11.29% |
EBIAT | 2,611.65 | 2,573.11 | -2,165.48 | 897.31 | 1,193.61 | 1,525.52 | 1,849.63 | 2,242.61 | 2,719.09 | 3,296.79 |
Depreciation | 520 | 601 | 653 | 774 | 965 | 1,340.17 | 1,624.91 | 1,970.15 | 2,388.73 | 2,896.25 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -1,160 | 1,061 | -2,152 | -1,041.14 | -1,220.84 | -1,480.23 | -1,794.72 | -2,176.03 | -2,638.36 |
Inventories | - | 36 | -43 | -136 | 499 | -940.67 | -260.20 | -315.48 | -382.51 | -463.77 |
Accounts Payable | - | 982 | -1,249 | 2,373 | 1,036.41 | 1,242.15 | 1,506.06 | 1,826.04 | 2,214 | 2,684.40 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,634 | -1,181 | -738 | -336 | -455 | -1,816.90 | -2,202.93 | -2,670.97 | -3,238.45 | -3,926.51 |
UFCF | 1,497.65 | 1,851.11 | -2,481.47 | 1,420.31 | 2,197.88 | 129.42 | 1,037.25 | 1,257.63 | 1,524.83 | 1,848.80 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 119.58 | 885.50 | 991.99 | 1,111.30 | 1,244.95 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 4,353.32 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.23 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,885.77 |
Terminal Value | 30,269.20 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 20,382.75 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 24,736.06 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 7,194 |
Equity Value | 17,542.06 |
Shares Outstanding | 701 |
Equity Value Per Share | 25.02 |