Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)

$10.1

+0.28 (+2.85%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 15.13 | 10.1 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	26,223	34,055	33,669	23,290	42,043	50,286.20	60,145.62	71,938.13	86,042.76	102,912.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,036	3,365	3,263	-1,520	1,440	2,437.40	2,915.30	3,486.89	4,170.55	4,988.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,410	2,845	2,662	-2,173	666	1,397.09	1,671.01	1,998.64	2,390.51	2,859.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	626	520	601	653	774	1,040.31	1,244.28	1,488.25	1,780.04	2,129.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	37	66	45	3,786	4,254	2,699.63	3,228.94	3,862.02	4,619.23	5,524.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	3,029	2,454	3,614	2,553	4,251.87	5,085.52	6,082.62	7,275.21	8,701.64	10,407.73
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	713	640	604	647	253	982.80	1,175.49	1,405.96	1,681.62	2,011.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	3,457	2,704	3,686	2,437	4,470.71	5,347.27	6,395.68	7,649.66	9,149.50	10,943.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,024	-1,634	-1,181	-738	-336	-1,627.13	-1,946.15	-2,327.73	-2,784.12	-3,329.99
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 10.1
Beta	1.789
Diluted Shares Outstanding	716
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	17.75
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.331
Total Debt	8,737
Total Equity	7,231.60
Total Capital	15,968.60
Debt Weighting	54.71
Equity Weighting	45.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	26,223	34,055	33,669	23,290	42,043	50,286.20	60,145.62	71,938.13	86,042.76	102,912.82
EBITDA	2,036	3,365	3,263	-1,520	1,440	2,437.40	2,915.30	3,486.89	4,170.55	4,988.25
EBIT	1,410	2,845	2,662	-2,173	666	1,397.09	1,671.01	1,998.64	2,390.51	2,859.20
Tax Rate	5.10%	8.20%	3.34%	0.35%	17.75%	6.95%	6.95%	6.95%	6.95%	6.95%
EBIAT	1,338.09	2,611.65	2,573.11	-2,165.48	547.76	1,300.02	1,554.91	1,859.77	2,224.41	2,660.54
Depreciation	626	520	601	653	774	1,040.31	1,244.28	1,488.25	1,780.04	2,129.05
Accounts Receivable	-	575	-1,160	1,061	-1,698.87	-833.65	-997.10	-1,192.60	-1,426.42	-1,706.10
Inventories	-	73	36	-43	394	-729.80	-192.69	-230.47	-275.66	-329.71
Accounts Payable	-	-753	982	-1,249	2,033.71	876.55	1,048.42	1,253.98	1,499.84	1,793.91
Capital Expenditure	-1,024	-1,634	-1,181	-738	-336	-1,627.13	-1,946.15	-2,327.73	-2,784.12	-3,329.99
UFCF	940.09	1,392.65	1,851.11	-2,481.47	1,714.60	26.31	711.66	851.20	1,018.09	1,217.70
WACC
PV UFCF						24.51	617.20	687.48	765.76	852.95
SUM PV UFCF										2,947.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.38
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,242.05
Terminal Value	23,086.52
Present Value of Terminal Value	16,171.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	19,119.06
Net Debt	8,288
Equity Value	10,831.06
Shares Outstanding	716
Equity Value Per Share	15.13