Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)

$13.88

+0.26 (+1.91%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 25.02 | 13.88 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	34,055	33,669	23,290	42,078	57,342	69,525.06	84,296.58	102,206.50	123,921.61	150,250.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,365	3,263	-1,520	1,865	2,596	3,059.87	3,709.98	4,498.22	5,453.93	6,612.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,845	2,662	-2,173	1,091	1,631	1,719.70	2,085.07	2,528.07	3,065.19	3,716.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	520	601	653	774	965	1,340.17	1,624.91	1,970.15	2,388.73	2,896.25
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	66	45	22	449	3,485	1,052.13	1,275.67	1,546.70	1,875.32	2,273.76
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	2,454	3,614	2,553	4,705	5,746.14	6,966.98	8,447.21	10,241.93	12,417.97	15,056.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	640	604	647	783	284	1,224.67	1,484.86	1,800.34	2,182.85	2,646.62
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,704	3,686	2,437	4,810	5,846.41	7,088.55	8,594.61	10,420.65	12,634.65	15,319.05
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,634	-1,181	-738	-336	-455	-1,816.90	-2,202.93	-2,670.97	-3,238.45	-3,926.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 13.88
Beta	1.659
Diluted Shares Outstanding	701
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.82
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.613
Total Debt	7,595
Total Equity	9,729.88
Total Capital	17,324.88
Debt Weighting	43.84
Equity Weighting	56.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	34,055	33,669	23,290	42,078	57,342	69,525.06	84,296.58	102,206.50	123,921.61	150,250.39
EBITDA	3,365	3,263	-1,520	1,865	2,596	3,059.87	3,709.98	4,498.22	5,453.93	6,612.68
EBIT	2,845	2,662	-2,173	1,091	1,631	1,719.70	2,085.07	2,528.07	3,065.19	3,716.44
Tax Rate	8.20%	3.34%	0.35%	17.75%	26.82%	11.29%	11.29%	11.29%	11.29%	11.29%
EBIAT	2,611.65	2,573.11	-2,165.48	897.31	1,193.61	1,525.52	1,849.63	2,242.61	2,719.09	3,296.79
Depreciation	520	601	653	774	965	1,340.17	1,624.91	1,970.15	2,388.73	2,896.25
Accounts Receivable	-	-1,160	1,061	-2,152	-1,041.14	-1,220.84	-1,480.23	-1,794.72	-2,176.03	-2,638.36
Inventories	-	36	-43	-136	499	-940.67	-260.20	-315.48	-382.51	-463.77
Accounts Payable	-	982	-1,249	2,373	1,036.41	1,242.15	1,506.06	1,826.04	2,214	2,684.40
Capital Expenditure	-1,634	-1,181	-738	-336	-455	-1,816.90	-2,202.93	-2,670.97	-3,238.45	-3,926.51
UFCF	1,497.65	1,851.11	-2,481.47	1,420.31	2,197.88	129.42	1,037.25	1,257.63	1,524.83	1,848.80
WACC
PV UFCF						119.58	885.50	991.99	1,111.30	1,244.95
SUM PV UFCF										4,353.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.23
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,885.77
Terminal Value	30,269.20
Present Value of Terminal Value	20,382.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	24,736.06
Net Debt	7,194
Equity Value	17,542.06
Shares Outstanding	701
Equity Value Per Share	25.02