Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Pacific Biosciences of California, ... (PACB)
$13.49
+0.63 (+4.90%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 78.63 | 90.89 | 78.89 | 130.51 | 128.30 | 149.52 | 174.24 | 203.05 | 236.62 | 275.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -92.92 | -71.58 | 38.97 | -250.76 | -299.56 | -171.39 | -199.73 | -232.75 | -271.23 | -316.08 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -100.14 | -81.52 | 29.67 | -262.34 | -309.95 | -186.01 | -216.76 | -252.60 | -294.37 | -343.04 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 7.22 | 9.95 | 9.30 | 11.58 | 10.39 | 14.62 | 17.04 | 19.85 | 23.14 | 26.96 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 102.35 | 49.10 | 318.81 | 1,044.40 | 772.32 | 595.22 | 693.64 | 808.33 | 941.98 | 1,097.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 8.59 | 15.27 | 16.84 | 24.24 | 18.79 | 24.61 | 28.67 | 33.42 | 38.94 | 45.38 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 17.88 | 13.31 | 14.23 | 24.60 | 50.38 | 33.95 | 39.56 | 46.11 | 53.73 | 62.61 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 6.74 | 8.37 | 3.58 | 11 | 12.03 | 12 | 13.98 | 16.29 | 18.98 | 22.12 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.85 | -2.84 | -1.04 | -5.93 | -16.75 | -7.29 | -8.50 | -9.91 | -11.54 | -13.45 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 13.49 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.666 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 224.55 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.55% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.555 |
| Total Debt | 946.64 |
| Total Equity | 3,029.18 |
| Total Capital | 3,975.82 |
| Debt Weighting | 23.81 |
| Equity Weighting | 76.19 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 78.63 | 90.89 | 78.89 | 130.51 | 128.30 | 149.52 | 174.24 | 203.05 | 236.62 | 275.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -92.92 | -71.58 | 38.97 | -250.76 | -299.56 | -171.39 | -199.73 | -232.75 | -271.23 | -316.08 |
| EBIT | -100.14 | -81.52 | 29.67 | -262.34 | -309.95 | -186.01 | -216.76 | -252.60 | -294.37 | -343.04 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 34.07% | 0.00% | 6.81% | 6.81% | 6.81% | 6.81% | 6.81% |
| EBIAT | -100.14 | -81.52 | 29.67 | -172.96 | -309.95 | -173.33 | -201.99 | -235.39 | -274.31 | -319.67 |
| Depreciation | 7.22 | 9.95 | 9.30 | 11.58 | 10.39 | 14.62 | 17.04 | 19.85 | 23.14 | 26.96 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -6.67 | -1.57 | -7.40 | 5.46 | -5.82 | -4.07 | -4.74 | -5.52 | -6.44 |
| Inventories | - | 4.57 | -0.92 | -10.37 | -25.78 | 16.43 | -5.61 | -6.54 | -7.62 | -8.88 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.63 | -4.79 | 7.42 | 1.03 | -0.03 | 1.98 | 2.31 | 2.69 | 3.14 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.85 | -2.84 | -1.04 | -5.93 | -16.75 | -7.29 | -8.50 | -9.91 | -11.54 | -13.45 |
| UFCF | -94.78 | -74.88 | 30.66 | -177.66 | -335.61 | -155.43 | -201.16 | -234.42 | -273.17 | -318.34 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -142.38 | -168.78 | -180.17 | -192.32 | -205.29 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -888.94 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.17 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -324.71 |
| Terminal Value | -4,528.70 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -2,920.50 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -3,809.44 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 946.64 |
| Equity Value | -4,756.08 |
| Shares Outstanding | 224.55 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -21.18 |