Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)

$163.79

-1.79 (-1.08%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -62.38 | 163.79 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,273.102,899.603,408.404,256.105,501.506,866.448,570.0210,696.2713,350.0416,662.23
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -4.20163.10110.403.20116.30149.25186.28232.50290.19362.18
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -100.609.30-143.10-301.70-179.80-256.26-319.84-399.19-498.23-621.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 96.40153.80253.50304.90296.10405.51506.12631.69788.42984.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 3,403.402,803.103,747.802,901.103,634.506,737.108,408.5910,494.7913,098.5816,348.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 467.30582.401,037.101,240.402,142.501,911.052,385.192,976.973,715.564,637.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 49.4073.3063.6056.90128140.50175.35218.86273.16340.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -112-131.20-214.40-116-192.80-301.74-376.61-470.04-586.66-732.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 163.79
Beta 1.128
Diluted Shares Outstanding 295.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -28.86
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.129
Total Debt 3,952.90
Total Equity 48,399.94
Total Capital 52,352.85
Debt Weighting 7.55
Equity Weighting 92.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,273.102,899.603,408.404,256.105,501.506,866.448,570.0210,696.2713,350.0416,662.23
EBITDA -4.20163.10110.403.20116.30149.25186.28232.50290.19362.18
EBIT -100.609.30-143.10-301.70-179.80-256.26-319.84-399.19-498.23-621.84
Tax Rate -13.59%-9.79%-15.19%-7.29%-28.86%-14.94%-14.94%-14.94%-14.94%-14.94%
EBIAT -114.2810.21-164.83-323.69-231.69-294.55-367.63-458.84-572.68-714.77
Depreciation 96.40153.80253.50304.90296.10405.51506.12631.69788.42984.02
Accounts Receivable --115.10-454.70-203.30-902.10231.45-474.14-591.77-738.59-921.84
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -23.90-9.70-6.7071.1012.5034.8643.5154.3067.77
Capital Expenditure -112-131.20-214.40-116-192.80-301.74-376.61-470.04-586.66-732.21
UFCF -129.88-58.39-590.13-344.79-959.3953.16-677.40-845.46-1,055.22-1,317.03
WACC
PV UFCF 49-575.52-662.10-761.70-876.29
SUM PV UFCF -2,826.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.49
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,343.37
Terminal Value -20,699.03
Present Value of Terminal Value -13,772.14

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -16,598.75
Net Debt 1,834.40
Equity Value -18,433.15
Shares Outstanding 295.50
Equity Value Per Share -62.38