Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)

$22.34

+0.86 (+4.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -151.77 | 22.34 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,410.735,401.523,124.874,710.097,321.799,562.2212,488.2216,309.5521,300.2127,817.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 79.5345.96-269.5580.46532.9667.7888.51115.60150.97197.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 79.5345.96-269.5580.46433.19-62.52-81.65-106.64-139.27-181.89
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----99.77130.30170.17222.24290.24379.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 75.08126.0168.31112.22490.93302.31394.82515.63673.41879.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 160.34228.72111.66195.11252.89384.49502.14655.80856.471,118.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 322.06615.87429.85790.321,041.981,254.771,638.732,140.172,795.053,650.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 54.79162.40106.94154.54151.39255.96334.29436.58570.17744.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -48.44-83.92-63.52-29.53-53.03-121.59-158.80-207.39-270.85-353.72
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 22.34
Beta 2.047
Diluted Shares Outstanding 59.88
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.410
Total Debt 870.63
Total Equity 1,337.79
Total Capital 2,208.41
Debt Weighting 39.42
Equity Weighting 60.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,410.735,401.523,124.874,710.097,321.799,562.2212,488.2216,309.5521,300.2127,817.97
EBITDA 79.5345.96-269.5580.46532.9667.7888.51115.60150.97197.17
EBIT 79.5345.96-269.5580.46433.19-62.52-81.65-106.64-139.27-181.89
Tax Rate 0.84%241.31%4.82%-1.27%0.19%49.18%49.18%49.18%49.18%49.18%
EBIAT 78.86-64.94-256.5581.48432.34-31.78-41.50-54.20-70.78-92.44
Depreciation ----99.77130.30170.17222.24290.24379.06
Accounts Receivable --68.38117.06-83.45-57.78-131.61-117.65-153.65-200.67-262.08
Inventories --293.81186.02-360.46-251.67-212.79-383.96-501.44-654.88-855.27
Accounts Payable -107.61-55.4647.60-3.15104.5778.32102.29133.59174.47
Capital Expenditure -48.44-83.92-63.52-29.53-53.02-121.59-158.80-207.39-270.85-353.72
UFCF 30.42-403.43-72.45-344.37166.50-262.90-453.41-592.15-773.35-1,009.99
WACC
PV UFCF -236.40-366.61-430.53-505.59-593.74
SUM PV UFCF -2,132.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.21
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,030.19
Terminal Value -11,185.55
Present Value of Terminal Value -6,575.64

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -8,708.51
Net Debt 379.70
Equity Value -9,088.21
Shares Outstanding 59.88
Equity Value Per Share -151.77