Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)
$22.34
+0.86 (+4.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 3,410.73 | 5,401.52 | 3,124.87 | 4,710.09 | 7,321.79 | 9,562.22 | 12,488.22 | 16,309.55 | 21,300.21 | 27,817.97 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 79.53 | 45.96 | -269.55 | 80.46 | 532.96 | 67.78 | 88.51 | 115.60 | 150.97 | 197.17 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 79.53 | 45.96 | -269.55 | 80.46 | 433.19 | -62.52 | -81.65 | -106.64 | -139.27 | -181.89 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | - | - | - | - | 99.77 | 130.30 | 170.17 | 222.24 | 290.24 | 379.06 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 75.08 | 126.01 | 68.31 | 112.22 | 490.93 | 302.31 | 394.82 | 515.63 | 673.41 | 879.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 160.34 | 228.72 | 111.66 | 195.11 | 252.89 | 384.49 | 502.14 | 655.80 | 856.47 | 1,118.54 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 322.06 | 615.87 | 429.85 | 790.32 | 1,041.98 | 1,254.77 | 1,638.73 | 2,140.17 | 2,795.05 | 3,650.33 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 54.79 | 162.40 | 106.94 | 154.54 | 151.39 | 255.96 | 334.29 | 436.58 | 570.17 | 744.64 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -48.44 | -83.92 | -63.52 | -29.53 | -53.03 | -121.59 | -158.80 | -207.39 | -270.85 | -353.72 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 22.34 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.047 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 59.88 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.19 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.82% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.410 |
Total Debt | 870.63 |
Total Equity | 1,337.79 |
Total Capital | 2,208.41 |
Debt Weighting | 39.42 |
Equity Weighting | 60.58 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 3,410.73 | 5,401.52 | 3,124.87 | 4,710.09 | 7,321.79 | 9,562.22 | 12,488.22 | 16,309.55 | 21,300.21 | 27,817.97 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 79.53 | 45.96 | -269.55 | 80.46 | 532.96 | 67.78 | 88.51 | 115.60 | 150.97 | 197.17 |
EBIT | 79.53 | 45.96 | -269.55 | 80.46 | 433.19 | -62.52 | -81.65 | -106.64 | -139.27 | -181.89 |
Tax Rate | 0.84% | 241.31% | 4.82% | -1.27% | 0.19% | 49.18% | 49.18% | 49.18% | 49.18% | 49.18% |
EBIAT | 78.86 | -64.94 | -256.55 | 81.48 | 432.34 | -31.78 | -41.50 | -54.20 | -70.78 | -92.44 |
Depreciation | - | - | - | - | 99.77 | 130.30 | 170.17 | 222.24 | 290.24 | 379.06 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -68.38 | 117.06 | -83.45 | -57.78 | -131.61 | -117.65 | -153.65 | -200.67 | -262.08 |
Inventories | - | -293.81 | 186.02 | -360.46 | -251.67 | -212.79 | -383.96 | -501.44 | -654.88 | -855.27 |
Accounts Payable | - | 107.61 | -55.46 | 47.60 | -3.15 | 104.57 | 78.32 | 102.29 | 133.59 | 174.47 |
Capital Expenditure | -48.44 | -83.92 | -63.52 | -29.53 | -53.02 | -121.59 | -158.80 | -207.39 | -270.85 | -353.72 |
UFCF | 30.42 | -403.43 | -72.45 | -344.37 | 166.50 | -262.90 | -453.41 | -592.15 | -773.35 | -1,009.99 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -236.40 | -366.61 | -430.53 | -505.59 | -593.74 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -2,132.87 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 11.21 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,030.19 |
Terminal Value | -11,185.55 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -6,575.64 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -8,708.51 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 379.70 |
Equity Value | -9,088.21 |
Shares Outstanding | 59.88 |
Equity Value Per Share | -151.77 |