Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)

$34.35

+0.56 (+1.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -118.55 | 34.35 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,410.735,401.523,124.874,710.097,321.799,562.2212,488.2216,309.5521,300.2127,817.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 102.7765.45-277.43-70.44442.01-2.14-2.80-3.66-4.78-6.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 50.13-134.56-492.59-108.58342.24-275.69-360.06-470.23-614.12-802.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 52.64200.01215.1538.1399.77273.55357.26466.57609.34795.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 75.08126.0168.31112.22490.93302.31394.82515.63673.41879.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 160.34228.72111.66195.11252.89384.49502.14655.80856.471,118.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 322.06615.87429.85790.321,041.981,254.771,638.732,140.172,795.053,650.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 54.79162.40106.94154.54151.39255.96334.29436.58570.17744.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -48.44-83.92-63.52-29.53-53.03-121.59-158.80-207.39-270.85-353.72
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34.35
Beta 2.110
Diluted Shares Outstanding 59.88
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.502
Total Debt 870.63
Total Equity 2,056.98
Total Capital 2,927.61
Debt Weighting 29.74
Equity Weighting 70.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,410.735,401.523,124.874,710.097,321.799,562.2212,488.2216,309.5521,300.2127,817.97
EBITDA 102.7765.45-277.43-70.44442.01-2.14-2.80-3.66-4.78-6.24
EBIT 50.13-134.56-492.59-108.58342.24-275.69-360.06-470.23-614.12-802.04
Tax Rate 0.84%241.31%4.82%-1.27%0.19%49.18%49.18%49.18%49.18%49.18%
EBIAT 49.71190.14-468.84-109.96341.58-140.12-182.99-238.98-312.11-407.62
Depreciation 52.64200.01215.1538.1399.77273.55357.26466.57609.34795.80
Accounts Receivable --68.38117.06-83.45-57.78-131.61-117.65-153.65-200.67-262.08
Inventories --293.81186.02-360.46-251.67-212.79-383.96-501.44-654.88-855.27
Accounts Payable -107.61-55.4647.60-3.15104.5778.32102.29133.59174.47
Capital Expenditure -48.44-83.92-63.52-29.53-53.02-121.59-158.80-207.39-270.85-353.72
UFCF 53.9151.66-69.59-497.6775.73-227.98-407.81-532.60-695.58-908.42
WACC
PV UFCF -202.61-322.11-373.87-433.94-503.66
SUM PV UFCF -1,836.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.52
Free cash flow (t + 1) -926.59
Terminal Value -8,807.89
Present Value of Terminal Value -4,883.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,719.60
Net Debt 379.70
Equity Value -7,099.30
Shares Outstanding 59.88
Equity Value Per Share -118.55