Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)

$34.35

+0.56 (+1.66%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -118.55 | 34.35 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,410.73	5,401.52	3,124.87	4,710.09	7,321.79	9,562.22	12,488.22	16,309.55	21,300.21	27,817.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	102.77	65.45	-277.43	-70.44	442.01	-2.14	-2.80	-3.66	-4.78	-6.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	50.13	-134.56	-492.59	-108.58	342.24	-275.69	-360.06	-470.23	-614.12	-802.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	52.64	200.01	215.15	38.13	99.77	273.55	357.26	466.57	609.34	795.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	75.08	126.01	68.31	112.22	490.93	302.31	394.82	515.63	673.41	879.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	160.34	228.72	111.66	195.11	252.89	384.49	502.14	655.80	856.47	1,118.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	322.06	615.87	429.85	790.32	1,041.98	1,254.77	1,638.73	2,140.17	2,795.05	3,650.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	54.79	162.40	106.94	154.54	151.39	255.96	334.29	436.58	570.17	744.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-48.44	-83.92	-63.52	-29.53	-53.03	-121.59	-158.80	-207.39	-270.85	-353.72
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 34.35
Beta	2.110
Diluted Shares Outstanding	59.88
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.19
After-tax Cost of Debt	7.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.502
Total Debt	870.63
Total Equity	2,056.98
Total Capital	2,927.61
Debt Weighting	29.74
Equity Weighting	70.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,410.73	5,401.52	3,124.87	4,710.09	7,321.79	9,562.22	12,488.22	16,309.55	21,300.21	27,817.97
EBITDA	102.77	65.45	-277.43	-70.44	442.01	-2.14	-2.80	-3.66	-4.78	-6.24
EBIT	50.13	-134.56	-492.59	-108.58	342.24	-275.69	-360.06	-470.23	-614.12	-802.04
Tax Rate	0.84%	241.31%	4.82%	-1.27%	0.19%	49.18%	49.18%	49.18%	49.18%	49.18%
EBIAT	49.71	190.14	-468.84	-109.96	341.58	-140.12	-182.99	-238.98	-312.11	-407.62
Depreciation	52.64	200.01	215.15	38.13	99.77	273.55	357.26	466.57	609.34	795.80
Accounts Receivable	-	-68.38	117.06	-83.45	-57.78	-131.61	-117.65	-153.65	-200.67	-262.08
Inventories	-	-293.81	186.02	-360.46	-251.67	-212.79	-383.96	-501.44	-654.88	-855.27
Accounts Payable	-	107.61	-55.46	47.60	-3.15	104.57	78.32	102.29	133.59	174.47
Capital Expenditure	-48.44	-83.92	-63.52	-29.53	-53.02	-121.59	-158.80	-207.39	-270.85	-353.72
UFCF	53.91	51.66	-69.59	-497.67	75.73	-227.98	-407.81	-532.60	-695.58	-908.42
WACC
PV UFCF						-202.61	-322.11	-373.87	-433.94	-503.66
SUM PV UFCF										-1,836.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	12.52
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-926.59
Terminal Value	-8,807.89
Present Value of Terminal Value	-4,883.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-6,719.60
Net Debt	379.70
Equity Value	-7,099.30
Shares Outstanding	59.88
Equity Value Per Share	-118.55