Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)
$34.35
+0.56 (+1.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 3,410.73 | 5,401.52 | 3,124.87 | 4,710.09 | 7,321.79 | 9,562.22 | 12,488.22 | 16,309.55 | 21,300.21 | 27,817.97 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 102.77 | 65.45 | -277.43 | -70.44 | 442.01 | -2.14 | -2.80 | -3.66 | -4.78 | -6.24 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 50.13 | -134.56 | -492.59 | -108.58 | 342.24 | -275.69 | -360.06 | -470.23 | -614.12 | -802.04 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 52.64 | 200.01 | 215.15 | 38.13 | 99.77 | 273.55 | 357.26 | 466.57 | 609.34 | 795.80 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 75.08 | 126.01 | 68.31 | 112.22 | 490.93 | 302.31 | 394.82 | 515.63 | 673.41 | 879.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 160.34 | 228.72 | 111.66 | 195.11 | 252.89 | 384.49 | 502.14 | 655.80 | 856.47 | 1,118.54 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 322.06 | 615.87 | 429.85 | 790.32 | 1,041.98 | 1,254.77 | 1,638.73 | 2,140.17 | 2,795.05 | 3,650.33 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 54.79 | 162.40 | 106.94 | 154.54 | 151.39 | 255.96 | 334.29 | 436.58 | 570.17 | 744.64 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -48.44 | -83.92 | -63.52 | -29.53 | -53.03 | -121.59 | -158.80 | -207.39 | -270.85 | -353.72 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 34.35 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.110 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 59.88 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.19 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.82% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 14.502 |
Total Debt | 870.63 |
Total Equity | 2,056.98 |
Total Capital | 2,927.61 |
Debt Weighting | 29.74 |
Equity Weighting | 70.26 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 3,410.73 | 5,401.52 | 3,124.87 | 4,710.09 | 7,321.79 | 9,562.22 | 12,488.22 | 16,309.55 | 21,300.21 | 27,817.97 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 102.77 | 65.45 | -277.43 | -70.44 | 442.01 | -2.14 | -2.80 | -3.66 | -4.78 | -6.24 |
EBIT | 50.13 | -134.56 | -492.59 | -108.58 | 342.24 | -275.69 | -360.06 | -470.23 | -614.12 | -802.04 |
Tax Rate | 0.84% | 241.31% | 4.82% | -1.27% | 0.19% | 49.18% | 49.18% | 49.18% | 49.18% | 49.18% |
EBIAT | 49.71 | 190.14 | -468.84 | -109.96 | 341.58 | -140.12 | -182.99 | -238.98 | -312.11 | -407.62 |
Depreciation | 52.64 | 200.01 | 215.15 | 38.13 | 99.77 | 273.55 | 357.26 | 466.57 | 609.34 | 795.80 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -68.38 | 117.06 | -83.45 | -57.78 | -131.61 | -117.65 | -153.65 | -200.67 | -262.08 |
Inventories | - | -293.81 | 186.02 | -360.46 | -251.67 | -212.79 | -383.96 | -501.44 | -654.88 | -855.27 |
Accounts Payable | - | 107.61 | -55.46 | 47.60 | -3.15 | 104.57 | 78.32 | 102.29 | 133.59 | 174.47 |
Capital Expenditure | -48.44 | -83.92 | -63.52 | -29.53 | -53.02 | -121.59 | -158.80 | -207.39 | -270.85 | -353.72 |
UFCF | 53.91 | 51.66 | -69.59 | -497.67 | 75.73 | -227.98 | -407.81 | -532.60 | -695.58 | -908.42 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -202.61 | -322.11 | -373.87 | -433.94 | -503.66 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -1,836.19 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 12.52 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -926.59 |
Terminal Value | -8,807.89 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -4,883.41 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -6,719.60 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 379.70 |
Equity Value | -7,099.30 |
Shares Outstanding | 59.88 |
Equity Value Per Share | -118.55 |