Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

PBF Energy Inc. (PBF)

$39.59

+0.72 (+1.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -41.29 | 39.59 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 21,786.6427,186.0924,508.2015,115.9027,253.4031,130.6235,559.4440,618.3346,396.9252,997.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,185.39710.331,030.80-5511,044.40774.95885.191,011.131,154.981,319.29
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 885.53331.73583.30-1,132.10560.60138.99158.76181.35207.15236.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 299.86378.60447.50581.10483.80635.96726.43829.78947.831,082.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 573.02597.29814.901,609.501,341.501,476.981,687.101,927.122,201.282,514.44
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 952.55718.21835512.901,277.601,151.961,315.841,503.041,716.871,961.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,213.801,865.832,122.201,686.202,505.102,865.923,273.653,739.374,271.364,879.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 578.55488.43601.40407911.70805.90920.551,051.511,201.111,371.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -306.68-317.46-404.90-196.20-249.10-400.93-457.97-523.12-597.54-682.55
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 39.59
Beta 2.016
Diluted Shares Outstanding 122.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 29.49
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.46%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.276
Total Debt 5,012.80
Total Equity 4,855.24
Total Capital 9,868.04
Debt Weighting 50.80
Equity Weighting 49.20
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 21,786.6427,186.0924,508.2015,115.9027,253.4031,130.6235,559.4440,618.3346,396.9252,997.61
EBITDA 1,185.39710.331,030.80-5511,044.40774.95885.191,011.131,154.981,319.29
EBIT 885.53331.73583.30-1,132.10560.60138.99158.76181.35207.15236.62
Tax Rate 48.00%38.55%33.39%-4.60%29.49%28.96%28.96%28.96%28.96%28.96%
EBIAT 460.51203.86388.54-1,184.15395.2998.73112.78128.82147.15168.08
Depreciation 299.86378.60447.50581.10483.80635.96726.43829.78947.831,082.67
Accounts Receivable -234.34-116.79322.10-764.70125.64-163.88-187.20-213.83-244.25
Inventories -347.97-256.37436-818.90-360.82-407.72-465.73-531.98-607.67
Accounts Payable --90.12112.97-194.40504.70-105.80114.65130.96149.59170.88
Capital Expenditure -306.68-317.46-404.90-196.20-249.10-400.93-457.97-523.12-597.54-682.55
UFCF 453.69757.19170.95-235.55-448.91-7.22-75.71-86.48-98.79-112.84
WACC
PV UFCF -6.64-63.96-67.15-70.50-74.01
SUM PV UFCF -282.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.80
Free cash flow (t + 1) -115.10
Terminal Value -1,692.60
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,110.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,392.48
Net Debt 3,671.30
Equity Value -5,063.78
Shares Outstanding 122.64
Equity Value Per Share -41.29