Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Paychex, Inc. (PCX.DE)

108.78 €

-1.18 (-1.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 76.17 | 108.78 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,380.903,772.504,040.504,056.804,611.704,989.505,398.245,840.476,318.936,836.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,4381,567.101,685.601,6622,016.402,100.402,272.472,458.632,660.052,877.96
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,3001,385.601,475.901,4701,824.601,871.142,024.432,190.272,369.702,563.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 138181.50209.70192191.80229.26248.05268.37290.35314.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 424.20712.60932.401,031.901,223.901,062.641,149.701,243.881,345.781,456.03
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 563.60854.20790.301,053.601,318.201,131.891,224.621,324.941,433.481,550.91
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 74.5075.9079.4089105.70106.44115.16124.59134.80145.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -154-123.80-127-114.60-132.60-166.45-180.09-194.84-210.80-228.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 108.78
Beta 0.995
Diluted Shares Outstanding 358.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.67
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.318
Total Debt 881.20
Total Equity 38,997.63
Total Capital 39,878.83
Debt Weighting 2.21
Equity Weighting 97.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,380.903,772.504,040.504,056.804,611.704,989.505,398.245,840.476,318.936,836.58
EBITDA 1,4381,567.101,685.601,6622,016.402,100.402,272.472,458.632,660.052,877.96
EBIT 1,3001,385.601,475.901,4701,824.601,871.142,024.432,190.272,369.702,563.83
Tax Rate 27.96%24.39%23.59%23.48%23.67%24.62%24.62%24.62%24.62%24.62%
EBIAT 936.511,047.711,127.751,124.901,392.801,410.551,526.101,651.121,786.381,932.73
Depreciation 138181.50209.70192191.80229.26248.05268.37290.35314.14
Accounts Receivable --290.6063.90-263.30-264.60186.31-92.73-100.32-108.54-117.43
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -1.403.509.6016.700.748.729.4310.2111.04
Capital Expenditure -154-123.80-127-114.60-132.60-166.45-180.09-194.84-210.80-228.07
UFCF 920.51816.211,277.85948.601,204.101,660.411,510.061,633.761,767.601,912.40
WACC
PV UFCF 1,534.291,289.371,289.041,288.711,288.37
SUM PV UFCF 6,689.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.22
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,950.65
Terminal Value 31,360.97
Present Value of Terminal Value 21,127.68

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 27,817.46
Net Debt 511.20
Equity Value 27,306.26
Shares Outstanding 358.50
Equity Value Per Share 76.17