Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Precision Drilling Corporation (PD.TO)

$68.05

-8.25 (-10.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 5.76 | 68.05 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,321.221,541.191,541.32935.75986.85944.48903.94865.13827.99792.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 275.15164.25439.42309.14190.97212.28203.17194.45186.10178.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -102.59-201.41105.80-7.18-91.35-45.32-43.38-41.51-39.73-38.03
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 377.75365.66333.62316.32282.33257.61246.55235.96225.83216.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 65.0896.6374.70108.7740.5960.0357.4554.9952.6350.37
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 299.59312.02245.11130.70255.74186.45178.45170.79163.45156.44
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 24.6334.0831.7226.2823.4321.3820.4619.5818.7417.94
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 87.44129.4991.4756.92224.1293.9789.9486.0882.3878.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -98-126.14-160.69-61.59-75.94-76.14-72.87-69.74-66.75-63.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 68.05
Beta 3.224
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13.31
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.95
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 18.915
Total Debt 1,165.78
Total Equity 906.09
Total Capital 2,071.86
Debt Weighting 56.27
Equity Weighting 43.73
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,321.221,541.191,541.32935.75986.85944.48903.94865.13827.99792.45
EBITDA 275.15164.25439.42309.14190.97212.28203.17194.45186.10178.11
EBIT -102.59-201.41105.80-7.18-91.35-45.32-43.38-41.51-39.73-38.03
Tax Rate 43.10%9.06%179.36%-10.03%2.95%44.89%44.89%44.89%44.89%44.89%
EBIAT -58.37-183.16-83.97-7.90-88.65-24.98-23.91-22.88-21.90-20.96
Depreciation 377.75365.66333.62316.32282.33257.61246.55235.96225.83216.14
Accounts Receivable --12.4366.91114.40-125.0469.2987.667.337.02
Inventories --9.452.365.442.852.050.920.880.840.80
Accounts Payable -42.06-38.02-34.55167.20-130.15-4.03-3.86-3.70-3.54
Capital Expenditure -98-126.14-160.69-61.59-75.94-76.14-72.87-69.74-66.75-63.88
UFCF 221.3776.54120.20332.12162.7597.69154.66148.02141.67135.59
WACC
PV UFCF 86.79122.09103.8288.2975.07
SUM PV UFCF 476.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.55
Free cash flow (t + 1) 138.30
Terminal Value 1,310.89
Present Value of Terminal Value 725.84

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,201.91
Net Debt 1,125.19
Equity Value 76.72
Shares Outstanding 13.31
Equity Value Per Share 5.76