Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB)

$13.64

-0.42 (-2.99%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 229.65 | 13.64 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	828.68	1,612.21	442.89	733.04	1,391.89	2,009.25	2,900.43	4,186.89	6,043.94	8,724.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	242.22	470.11	-99.93	84.80	338.99	288.32	416.20	600.80	867.28	1,251.95
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	133.74	235.23	-324.49	-139.45	99.40	-218.68	-315.68	-455.70	-657.82	-949.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	108.48	234.88	224.56	224.25	239.58	507	731.88	1,056.50	1,525.09	2,201.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	83.37	30.10	124.27	58.52	41.04	204.62	295.37	426.38	615.49	888.49
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	59.90	49.62	10.22	37.05	45.26	84.07	121.35	175.18	252.87	365.03
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	0.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	360.28	516.44	226.45	250.58	250.52	718.59	1,037.32	1,497.41	2,161.57	3,120.31
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-0.16	-0.75	-0.15	-0.24	-0.46	-0.67	-0.96	-1.39	-2.01	-2.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 13.64
Beta	1.833
Diluted Shares Outstanding	130.45
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-0.33
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.130
Total Debt	2,707.70
Total Equity	1,779.39
Total Capital	4,487.09
Debt Weighting	60.34
Equity Weighting	39.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	828.68	1,612.21	442.89	733.04	1,391.89	2,009.25	2,900.43	4,186.89	6,043.94	8,724.68
EBITDA	242.22	470.11	-99.93	84.80	338.99	288.32	416.20	600.80	867.28	1,251.95
EBIT	133.74	235.23	-324.49	-139.45	99.40	-218.68	-315.68	-455.70	-657.82	-949.59
Tax Rate	11.46%	4.51%	0.93%	-0.03%	-0.33%	3.31%	3.31%	3.31%	3.31%	3.31%
EBIAT	118.41	224.62	-321.47	-139.50	99.73	-211.45	-305.23	-440.62	-636.05	-918.16
Depreciation	108.48	234.88	224.56	224.25	239.58	507	731.88	1,056.50	1,525.09	2,201.53
Accounts Receivable	-	10.28	39.39	-26.82	-8.21	-38.81	-37.29	-53.82	-77.70	-112.16
Inventories	-	-0	0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Accounts Payable	-	156.16	-289.99	24.14	-0.07	468.07	318.72	460.09	664.16	958.74
Capital Expenditure	-0.16	-0.75	-0.15	-0.24	-0.46	-0.67	-0.96	-1.39	-2.01	-2.90
UFCF	226.72	625.18	-347.65	81.83	330.57	724.15	707.12	1,020.75	1,473.50	2,127.06
WACC
PV UFCF						674.07	612.69	823.27	1,106.24	1,486.45
SUM PV UFCF										4,702.72

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.43
Free cash flow (t + 1)	2,169.60
Terminal Value	39,955.74
Present Value of Terminal Value	27,922.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	32,625.03
Net Debt	2,666.66
Equity Value	29,958.38
Shares Outstanding	130.45
Equity Value Per Share	229.65