Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB)

$14.88

-0.33 (-2.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 71.32 | 14.88 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 769.32828.681,612.21442.89733.04907.611,123.741,391.341,722.672,132.89
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 239.66174.97456.85-74.06126.35147.24182.31225.72279.47346.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 137.3766.49221.97-298.62-97.90-74.67-92.45-114.46-141.72-175.47
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 102.29108.48234.88224.56224.25221.91274.76340.18421.19521.49
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 25.4183.3730.10124.276,137.851,598.481,979.132,450.433,033.963,756.45
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 29.2159.9049.6210.2237.0538.9648.2459.7373.9591.56
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 148.82360.28516.44226.45250.58327.04404.92501.35620.74768.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 124.65-61.05300.7240.5867.1783.16102.97127.48157.84195.43
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.88
Beta 1.777
Diluted Shares Outstanding 130.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.212
Total Debt 2,761.31
Total Equity 1,946.51
Total Capital 4,707.82
Debt Weighting 58.65
Equity Weighting 41.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 769.32828.681,612.21442.89733.04907.611,123.741,391.341,722.672,132.89
EBITDA 239.66174.97456.85-74.06126.35147.24182.31225.72279.47346.02
EBIT 137.3766.49221.97-298.62-97.90-74.67-92.45-114.46-141.72-175.47
Tax Rate 0.55%11.46%4.51%1.15%0.78%3.69%3.69%3.69%3.69%3.69%
EBIAT 136.6158.87211.96-295.19-97.14-71.91-89.04-110.24-136.49-168.99
Depreciation 102.29108.48234.88224.56224.25221.91274.76340.18421.19521.49
Accounts Receivable --30.6910.2839.39-26.82-1.92-9.28-11.49-14.22-17.61
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -211.46156.16-289.9924.1476.4677.8896.43119.39147.82
Capital Expenditure 124.65-61.05300.7240.5867.1783.16102.97127.48157.84195.43
UFCF 363.55287.06913.99-280.64191.59307.70357.29442.37547.71678.14
WACC
PV UFCF 287.89312.77362.32419.73486.23
SUM PV UFCF 1,868.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.88
Free cash flow (t + 1) 691.70
Terminal Value 14,174.26
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,162.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,031.85
Net Debt 2,702.80
Equity Value 9,329.05
Shares Outstanding 130.81
Equity Value Per Share 71.32