Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Profarma Distribuidora de Produtos ... (PFRM3.SA)

$3.46

-0.01 (-0.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 30.19 | 3.46 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,100.714,271.134,801.295,481.346,413.207,178.508,035.138,993.9810,067.2511,268.60
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -20.3470.25190.80173.52225.52169.48189.71212.35237.69266.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -20.3436.5295.0571.5999.6350.925763.8071.4179.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -33.7395.75101.94125.89118.56132.71148.55166.28186.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 193.17238.07230.34394.85188.52362.16405.38453.75507.90568.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 630.34795.17897.73903.841,084.631,235.971,383.461,548.551,733.351,940.19
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 697.80941.391,061.491,145.661,332.951,476.641,652.851,850.092,070.872,317.99
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -51.52-15.59-27.41-45.16-13.55-46.34-51.87-58.06-64.99-72.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.46
Beta 1.138
Diluted Shares Outstanding 122.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -60.41
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.061
Total Debt 946.88
Total Equity 424.23
Total Capital 1,371.12
Debt Weighting 69.06
Equity Weighting 30.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,100.714,271.134,801.295,481.346,413.207,178.508,035.138,993.9810,067.2511,268.60
EBITDA -20.3470.25190.80173.52225.52169.48189.71212.35237.69266.05
EBIT -20.3436.5295.0571.5999.6350.925763.8071.4179.93
Tax Rate 26.62%67.70%44.44%-57.88%-60.41%4.09%4.09%4.09%4.09%4.09%
EBIAT -14.9211.8052.81113.02159.8248.8454.6661.1968.4976.66
Depreciation -33.7395.75101.94125.89118.56132.71148.55166.28186.12
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --164.83-102.57-6.11-180.79-151.34-147.49-165.09-184.79-206.84
Accounts Payable -243.59120.1084.17187.29143.69176.21197.24220.78247.12
Capital Expenditure -51.52-15.60-27.41-45.16-13.55-46.34-51.87-58.06-64.99-72.74
UFCF -66.44108.70138.67247.86278.66113.41164.23183.82205.76230.31
WACC
PV UFCF 106.41144.57151.84159.46167.47
SUM PV UFCF 729.75

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) 234.92
Terminal Value 5,129.25
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,729.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,459.46
Net Debt 758.37
Equity Value 3,701.10
Shares Outstanding 122.61
Equity Value Per Share 30.19