Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
P3 Health Partners Inc. (PIII)
$1.26
+0.01 (+0.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 145.48 | 485.54 | 1,620.48 | 5,408.28 | 18,049.95 | 60,241.04 | 201,052.29 | 671,004.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||
| EBITDA | -39.04 | -50.25 | -301.27 | -1,005.48 | -3,355.76 | -11,199.74 | -37,378.74 | -124,750.18 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||
| EBIT | -39.44 | -51.04 | -304.82 | -1,017.33 | -3,395.31 | -11,331.72 | -37,819.19 | -126,220.20 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.40 | 0.80 | 3.55 | 11.85 | 39.54 | 131.97 | 440.46 | 1,470.01 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 32.59 | 36.26 | 140.48 | 694.79 | 2,318.83 | 7,739 | 25,828.64 | 86,202.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||
| Account Receivables | 18.42 | 39.25 | 52.07 | 431.88 | 1,441.38 | 4,810.54 | 16,055 | 53,582.98 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.69 | 11.79 | 17.73 | 109.24 | 364.59 | 1,216.82 | 4,061.08 | 13,553.70 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.45 | -2.93 | -12.97 | -43.29 | -144.46 | -482.15 | -1,609.14 | -5,370.45 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.26 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.000 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 68.16 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 9.49 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.53% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.640 |
| Total Debt | 89.92 |
| Total Equity | 85.88 |
| Total Capital | 175.80 |
| Debt Weighting | 51.15 |
| Equity Weighting | 48.85 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 145.48 | 485.54 | 1,620.48 | 5,408.28 | 18,049.95 | 60,241.04 | 201,052.29 | 671,004.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -39.04 | -50.25 | -301.27 | -1,005.48 | -3,355.76 | -11,199.74 | -37,378.74 | -124,750.18 |
| EBIT | -39.44 | -51.04 | -304.82 | -1,017.33 | -3,395.31 | -11,331.72 | -37,819.19 | -126,220.20 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 9.49% | 4.75% | 4.75% | 4.75% | 4.75% | 4.75% | 4.75% |
| EBIAT | -39.44 | -46.20 | -290.36 | -969.06 | -3,234.19 | -10,793.98 | -36,024.52 | -120,230.55 |
| Depreciation | 0.40 | 0.80 | 3.55 | 11.85 | 39.54 | 131.97 | 440.46 | 1,470.01 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -20.84 | -12.82 | -379.81 | -1,009.50 | -3,369.16 | -11,244.46 | -37,527.98 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 8.10 | 5.94 | 91.51 | 255.35 | 852.22 | 2,844.26 | 9,492.62 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.45 | -2.93 | -12.97 | -43.29 | -144.46 | -482.15 | -1,609.14 | -5,370.45 |
| UFCF | -40.49 | -61.06 | -306.65 | -1,288.79 | -4,093.26 | -13,661.09 | -45,593.41 | -152,166.35 |
| WACC | ||||||||
| PV UFCF | -332.25 | -1,341.50 | -4,093.26 | -13,124.31 | -42,080.81 | -134,924.74 | ||
| SUM PV UFCF | -180,497.95 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.09 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -155,209.68 |
| Terminal Value | -7,426,300.45 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -6,077,535.06 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -6,258,033.01 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -50.56 |
| Equity Value | -6,257,982.45 |
| Shares Outstanding | 68.16 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -91,813.75 |