Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

P3 Health Partners Inc. (PIII)

$1.26

+0.01 (+0.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -91,813.75 | 1.26 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 145.48485.541,620.485,408.2818,049.9560,241.04201,052.29671,004.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -39.04-50.25-301.27-1,005.48-3,355.76-11,199.74-37,378.74-124,750.18
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -39.44-51.04-304.82-1,017.33-3,395.31-11,331.72-37,819.19-126,220.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.400.803.5511.8539.54131.97440.461,470.01
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 32.5936.26140.48694.792,318.837,73925,828.6486,202.16
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 18.4239.2552.07431.881,441.384,810.5416,05553,582.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories --------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.6911.7917.73109.24364.591,216.824,061.0813,553.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.45-2.93-12.97-43.29-144.46-482.15-1,609.14-5,370.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.26
Beta 0.000
Diluted Shares Outstanding 68.16
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 9.49
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.640
Total Debt 89.92
Total Equity 85.88
Total Capital 175.80
Debt Weighting 51.15
Equity Weighting 48.85
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 145.48485.541,620.485,408.2818,049.9560,241.04201,052.29671,004.76
EBITDA -39.04-50.25-301.27-1,005.48-3,355.76-11,199.74-37,378.74-124,750.18
EBIT -39.44-51.04-304.82-1,017.33-3,395.31-11,331.72-37,819.19-126,220.20
Tax Rate 0.00%9.49%4.75%4.75%4.75%4.75%4.75%4.75%
EBIAT -39.44-46.20-290.36-969.06-3,234.19-10,793.98-36,024.52-120,230.55
Depreciation 0.400.803.5511.8539.54131.97440.461,470.01
Accounts Receivable --20.84-12.82-379.81-1,009.50-3,369.16-11,244.46-37,527.98
Inventories --------
Accounts Payable -8.105.9491.51255.35852.222,844.269,492.62
Capital Expenditure -1.45-2.93-12.97-43.29-144.46-482.15-1,609.14-5,370.45
UFCF -40.49-61.06-306.65-1,288.79-4,093.26-13,661.09-45,593.41-152,166.35
WACC
PV UFCF -332.25-1,341.50-4,093.26-13,124.31-42,080.81-134,924.74
SUM PV UFCF -180,497.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.09
Free cash flow (t + 1) -155,209.68
Terminal Value -7,426,300.45
Present Value of Terminal Value -6,077,535.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,258,033.01
Net Debt -50.56
Equity Value -6,257,982.45
Shares Outstanding 68.16
Equity Value Per Share -91,813.75