Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Pool Corporation (POOL)

$317.01

+4.49 (+1.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 299.46 | 317.01 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,788.192,998.103,199.523,936.625,295.586,246.227,367.508,690.0810,250.0712,090.11
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 310.53342.05370.78493.72863.10786.71927.941,094.521,2911,522.75
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 284.80314.13341.51464.32833.07735.71867.781,023.561,207.311,424.03
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 25.7227.9229.2729.4030.035160.1670.9583.6998.71
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 29.9416.3628.5834.1324.3247.9656.5766.7278.7092.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 76.6069.4976.65122.25376.57220.83260.47307.23362.39427.44
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 536.47672.58702.27780.991,339.101,358.551,602.431,890.092,229.392,629.60
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 245.25237.83261.96266.75398.70489.97577.93681.68804.05948.38
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -39.39-31.58-33.36-21.70-37.66-59.60-70.30-82.92-97.81-115.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 317.01
Beta 0.883
Diluted Shares Outstanding 40.69
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.05
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.918
Total Debt 1,427.78
Total Equity 12,899.45
Total Capital 14,327.23
Debt Weighting 9.97
Equity Weighting 90.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,788.192,998.103,199.523,936.625,295.586,246.227,367.508,690.0810,250.0712,090.11
EBITDA 310.53342.05370.78493.72863.10786.71927.941,094.521,2911,522.75
EBIT 284.80314.13341.51464.32833.07735.71867.781,023.561,207.311,424.03
Tax Rate 28.81%19.98%17.61%18.80%21.05%21.25%21.25%21.25%21.25%21.25%
EBIAT 202.75251.38281.38377.01657.67579.37683.37806.05950.751,121.42
Depreciation 25.7227.9229.2729.4030.035160.1670.9583.6998.71
Accounts Receivable -7.10-7.16-45.60-254.32155.74-39.64-46.76-55.15-65.05
Inventories --136.10-29.69-78.72-558.11-19.45-243.88-287.66-339.30-400.21
Accounts Payable --7.4124.134.79131.9491.2787.96103.75122.37144.34
Capital Expenditure -39.39-31.58-33.36-21.70-37.66-59.60-70.30-82.92-97.81-115.37
UFCF 189.09111.30264.57265.17-30.44798.32477.66563.41664.54783.84
WACC
PV UFCF 744.84415.81457.59503.58554.19
SUM PV UFCF 2,676.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) 799.52
Terminal Value 15,434.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,912.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 13,588.64
Net Debt 1,403.46
Equity Value 12,185.18
Shares Outstanding 40.69
Equity Value Per Share 299.46