Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU.TO)

$29.73

-0.42 (-1.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.13 | 29.73 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 491.42965.47914.88626.051,3832,007.302,913.434,228.596,137.438,907.95
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 489.40447.68429.37153.25502.701,018.581,478.382,145.743,114.364,520.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 55.29-529.5964.6141.19-352.45-222.59-323.08-468.92-680.59-987.82
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 434.12977.28364.76112.06855.151,241.171,801.462,614.663,794.955,508.04
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 123.3319.296.024.591.70114.85166.70241.95351.17509.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 170.31121.33118.6399.99141.90346.95503.57730.891,060.821,539.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 221.89187.65178.10141.22209.90488.95709.661,030.011,494.972,169.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -545.11-580.24-404.12-221.25-280-1,087.09-1,577.81-2,290.06-3,323.82-4,824.24
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.73
Beta 3.778
Diluted Shares Outstanding 142.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.54
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.68%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 20.821
Total Debt 398.90
Total Equity 4,246.48
Total Capital 4,645.38
Debt Weighting 8.59
Equity Weighting 91.41
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 491.42965.47914.88626.051,3832,007.302,913.434,228.596,137.438,907.95
EBITDA 489.40447.68429.37153.25502.701,018.581,478.382,145.743,114.364,520.22
EBIT 55.29-529.5964.6141.19-352.45-222.59-323.08-468.92-680.59-987.82
Tax Rate -312.01%34.51%459.71%-82.11%26.54%25.33%25.33%25.33%25.33%25.33%
EBIAT 227.79-346.85-232.4075.01-258.90-166.22-241.25-350.15-508.21-737.63
Depreciation 434.12977.28364.76112.06855.151,241.171,801.462,614.663,794.955,508.04
Accounts Receivable -48.982.7018.65-41.91-205.05-156.62-227.32-329.93-478.87
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --34.23-9.55-36.8868.68279.05220.72320.35464.96674.85
Capital Expenditure -545.11-580.24-404.12-221.25-280-1,087.09-1,577.81-2,290.06-3,323.82-4,824.24
UFCF 116.8064.93-278.61-52.42343.0161.8646.4967.4897.94142.15
WACC
PV UFCF 51.6532.4139.2747.5857.65
SUM PV UFCF 228.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 19.78
Free cash flow (t + 1) 145
Terminal Value 815.50
Present Value of Terminal Value 330.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 559.31
Net Debt 397.20
Equity Value 162.11
Shares Outstanding 142.84
Equity Value Per Share 1.13