Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Prairie Provident Resources Inc. (PPR.TO)

$0.14

-0.01 (-3.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3.40 | 0.14 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 83.9484.8297.8951.7284.4291.2998.71106.74115.42124.80
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -10.373.59-17.92-74.9725.62-25.75-27.84-30.11-32.56-35.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -45.24-26.10-20.66-77.1423.98-41.36-44.72-48.36-52.29-56.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 34.8829.692.742.171.6415.6116.8818.2519.7321.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 3.561.872.874.541.853.724.024.354.705.08
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8.655.778.677.879.319.5310.3111.1512.0513.04
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.700.890.960.600.820.910.991.071.151.25
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable -35.2140.6321.4735.0437.8940.9744.3047.9051.80
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -23.58-28.19-9.32-3.76-14.32-17.36-18.77-20.29-21.95-23.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.14
Beta 2.766
Diluted Shares Outstanding 165.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 12.06%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.419
Total Debt 112.21
Total Equity 23.17
Total Capital 135.39
Debt Weighting 82.88
Equity Weighting 17.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 83.9484.8297.8951.7284.4291.2998.71106.74115.42124.80
EBITDA -10.373.59-17.92-74.9725.62-25.75-27.84-30.11-32.56-35.20
EBIT -45.24-26.10-20.66-77.1423.98-41.36-44.72-48.36-52.29-56.54
Tax Rate 0.97%2.23%0.94%0.09%0.13%0.87%0.87%0.87%0.87%0.87%
EBIAT -44.80-25.52-20.47-77.0723.95-41-44.33-47.94-51.83-56.05
Depreciation 34.8829.692.742.171.6415.6116.8818.2519.7321.34
Accounts Receivable -2.89-2.900.79-1.44-0.22-0.78-0.84-0.91-0.98
Inventories --0.19-0.070.35-0.22-0.09-0.07-0.08-0.09-0.09
Accounts Payable --5.42-19.1613.572.853.083.333.603.90
Capital Expenditure -23.58-28.19-9.32-3.76-14.32-17.36-18.77-20.29-21.95-23.73
UFCF -33.50-21.33-24.59-96.6823.19-40.21-43.99-47.57-51.44-55.62
WACC
PV UFCF -35.64-34.57-33.13-31.76-30.44
SUM PV UFCF -165.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) -56.73
Terminal Value -524.81
Present Value of Terminal Value -287.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -452.80
Net Debt 110.36
Equity Value -563.16
Shares Outstanding 165.53
Equity Value Per Share -3.40