Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Prairie Provident Resources Inc. (PPR.TO)
$0.14
-0.01 (-3.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 83.94 | 84.82 | 97.89 | 51.72 | 84.42 | 91.29 | 98.71 | 106.74 | 115.42 | 124.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -10.37 | 3.59 | -17.92 | -74.97 | 25.62 | -25.75 | -27.84 | -30.11 | -32.56 | -35.20 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -45.24 | -26.10 | -20.66 | -77.14 | 23.98 | -41.36 | -44.72 | -48.36 | -52.29 | -56.54 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 34.88 | 29.69 | 2.74 | 2.17 | 1.64 | 15.61 | 16.88 | 18.25 | 19.73 | 21.34 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 3.56 | 1.87 | 2.87 | 4.54 | 1.85 | 3.72 | 4.02 | 4.35 | 4.70 | 5.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 8.65 | 5.77 | 8.67 | 7.87 | 9.31 | 9.53 | 10.31 | 11.15 | 12.05 | 13.04 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.70 | 0.89 | 0.96 | 0.60 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 0.99 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 1.25 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | 35.21 | 40.63 | 21.47 | 35.04 | 37.89 | 40.97 | 44.30 | 47.90 | 51.80 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -23.58 | -28.19 | -9.32 | -3.76 | -14.32 | -17.36 | -18.77 | -20.29 | -21.95 | -23.73 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.14 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.766 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 165.53 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.13 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 12.06% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 16.419 |
| Total Debt | 112.21 |
| Total Equity | 23.17 |
| Total Capital | 135.39 |
| Debt Weighting | 82.88 |
| Equity Weighting | 17.12 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 83.94 | 84.82 | 97.89 | 51.72 | 84.42 | 91.29 | 98.71 | 106.74 | 115.42 | 124.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -10.37 | 3.59 | -17.92 | -74.97 | 25.62 | -25.75 | -27.84 | -30.11 | -32.56 | -35.20 |
| EBIT | -45.24 | -26.10 | -20.66 | -77.14 | 23.98 | -41.36 | -44.72 | -48.36 | -52.29 | -56.54 |
| Tax Rate | 0.97% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.87% | 0.87% | 0.87% | 0.87% | 0.87% |
| EBIAT | -44.80 | -25.52 | -20.47 | -77.07 | 23.95 | -41 | -44.33 | -47.94 | -51.83 | -56.05 |
| Depreciation | 34.88 | 29.69 | 2.74 | 2.17 | 1.64 | 15.61 | 16.88 | 18.25 | 19.73 | 21.34 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 2.89 | -2.90 | 0.79 | -1.44 | -0.22 | -0.78 | -0.84 | -0.91 | -0.98 |
| Inventories | - | -0.19 | -0.07 | 0.35 | -0.22 | -0.09 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | 5.42 | -19.16 | 13.57 | 2.85 | 3.08 | 3.33 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Capital Expenditure | -23.58 | -28.19 | -9.32 | -3.76 | -14.32 | -17.36 | -18.77 | -20.29 | -21.95 | -23.73 |
| UFCF | -33.50 | -21.33 | -24.59 | -96.68 | 23.19 | -40.21 | -43.99 | -47.57 | -51.44 | -55.62 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -35.64 | -34.57 | -33.13 | -31.76 | -30.44 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -165.55 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.81 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -56.73 |
| Terminal Value | -524.81 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -287.25 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -452.80 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 110.36 |
| Equity Value | -563.16 |
| Shares Outstanding | 165.53 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -3.40 |