Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH)

$2.23

+0.19 (+9.31%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2,997.09 | 2.23 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 77.5973.22192.43343.67613.771,096.151,957.653,496.23
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -88.71-31.92-95.35-237.68-424.48-758.08-1,353.88-2,417.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -96.09-38.57-113.59-269.83-481.89-860.62-1,537.01-2,745
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7.386.6418.2532.1557.42102.54183.13327.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4.18196.05324.99506.38904.361,615.132,884.515,151.53
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4.714.66255.54166.37297.13530.64947.691,692.51
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories --------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4.818.906.9725.1744.9580.29143.39256.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.57-2.88-4.69-14.05-25.09-44.82-80.04-142.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.23
Beta 0.563
Diluted Shares Outstanding 97.55
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.26%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.187
Total Debt 417.43
Total Equity 217.53
Total Capital 634.96
Debt Weighting 65.74
Equity Weighting 34.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 77.5973.22192.43343.67613.771,096.151,957.653,496.23
EBITDA -88.71-31.92-95.35-237.68-424.48-758.08-1,353.88-2,417.94
EBIT -96.09-38.57-113.59-269.83-481.89-860.62-1,537.01-2,745
Tax Rate -0.09%3.17%8.61%3.90%3.90%3.90%3.90%3.90%
EBIAT -96.18-37.34-103.82-259.32-463.12-827.10-1,477.14-2,638.06
Depreciation 7.386.6418.2532.1557.42102.54183.13327.06
Accounts Receivable -0.05-250.8889.17-130.76-233.52-417.05-744.82
Inventories --------
Accounts Payable -4.10-1.9418.2119.7835.3363.10112.69
Capital Expenditure -4.57-2.88-4.69-14.05-25.09-44.82-80.04-142.94
UFCF -93.38-29.43-343.07-133.84-541.77-967.56-1,728-3,086.08
WACC
PV UFCF -137.79-541.77-939.84-1,630.38-2,828.31
SUM PV UFCF -5,734.75

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.95
Free cash flow (t + 1) -3,147.80
Terminal Value -331,347.17
Present Value of Terminal Value -286,517.73

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -292,252.49
Net Debt 101.69
Equity Value -292,354.18
Shares Outstanding 97.55
Equity Value Per Share -2,997.09