Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A... (PSG.MC)

1.76 €

-0.03 (-1.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7.61 | 1.76 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,290.663,939.214,198.213,570.423,498.063,335.443,180.373,032.512,891.522,757.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 464.06415.91457.84698.13361.45414.70395.42377.03359.51342.79
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 334.53261.30251.93513.30167.62264.16251.88240.17229218.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 129.53154.62205.91184.83193.84150.54143.54136.87130.50124.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,121.241,047.62850.30767.01585.91741.88707.39674.51643.15613.25
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 70.7076.0964.8546.5365.3555.3452.7650.3147.9745.74
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 200.85194.47212.06190.15244.12179.94171.57163.59155.99148.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -212.94-214.60-204.85-144.38-144.14-156.46-149.19-142.25-135.64-129.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.76
Beta 1.138
Diluted Shares Outstanding 539.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 70.50
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.55%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.076
Total Debt 1,674.53
Total Equity 948.74
Total Capital 2,623.27
Debt Weighting 63.83
Equity Weighting 36.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,290.663,939.214,198.213,570.423,498.063,335.443,180.373,032.512,891.522,757.09
EBITDA 464.06415.91457.84698.13361.45414.70395.42377.03359.51342.79
EBIT 334.53261.30251.93513.30167.62264.16251.88240.17229218.36
Tax Rate 56.29%52.77%57.01%31.52%70.50%53.62%53.62%53.62%53.62%53.62%
EBIAT 146.24123.42108.30351.5049.44122.52116.83111.39106.22101.28
Depreciation 129.53154.62205.91184.83193.84150.54143.54136.87130.50124.44
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --5.3911.2418.32-18.8210.012.572.452.342.23
Accounts Payable --6.3717.58-21.9053.96-64.18-8.37-7.98-7.61-7.25
Capital Expenditure -212.94-214.60-204.85-144.38-144.14-156.46-149.19-142.25-135.64-129.33
UFCF 62.8251.67138.18388.36134.2862.43105.38100.4895.8191.36
WACC
PV UFCF 60.2498.1390.2983.0876.44
SUM PV UFCF 408.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.63
Free cash flow (t + 1) 93.19
Terminal Value 5,716.92
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,783.38

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,191.56
Net Debt 1,089.58
Equity Value 4,101.99
Shares Outstanding 539.06
Equity Value Per Share 7.61