Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A... (PSG.MC)
1.76 €
-0.03 (-1.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,290.66 | 3,939.21 | 4,198.21 | 3,570.42 | 3,498.06 | 3,335.44 | 3,180.37 | 3,032.51 | 2,891.52 | 2,757.09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 464.06 | 415.91 | 457.84 | 698.13 | 361.45 | 414.70 | 395.42 | 377.03 | 359.51 | 342.79 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 334.53 | 261.30 | 251.93 | 513.30 | 167.62 | 264.16 | 251.88 | 240.17 | 229 | 218.36 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 129.53 | 154.62 | 205.91 | 184.83 | 193.84 | 150.54 | 143.54 | 136.87 | 130.50 | 124.44 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,121.24 | 1,047.62 | 850.30 | 767.01 | 585.91 | 741.88 | 707.39 | 674.51 | 643.15 | 613.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 70.70 | 76.09 | 64.85 | 46.53 | 65.35 | 55.34 | 52.76 | 50.31 | 47.97 | 45.74 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 200.85 | 194.47 | 212.06 | 190.15 | 244.12 | 179.94 | 171.57 | 163.59 | 155.99 | 148.74 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -212.94 | -214.60 | -204.85 | -144.38 | -144.14 | -156.46 | -149.19 | -142.25 | -135.64 | -129.33 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.76 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.138 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 539.06 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 70.50 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.55% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.076 |
| Total Debt | 1,674.53 |
| Total Equity | 948.74 |
| Total Capital | 2,623.27 |
| Debt Weighting | 63.83 |
| Equity Weighting | 36.17 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,290.66 | 3,939.21 | 4,198.21 | 3,570.42 | 3,498.06 | 3,335.44 | 3,180.37 | 3,032.51 | 2,891.52 | 2,757.09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 464.06 | 415.91 | 457.84 | 698.13 | 361.45 | 414.70 | 395.42 | 377.03 | 359.51 | 342.79 |
| EBIT | 334.53 | 261.30 | 251.93 | 513.30 | 167.62 | 264.16 | 251.88 | 240.17 | 229 | 218.36 |
| Tax Rate | 56.29% | 52.77% | 57.01% | 31.52% | 70.50% | 53.62% | 53.62% | 53.62% | 53.62% | 53.62% |
| EBIAT | 146.24 | 123.42 | 108.30 | 351.50 | 49.44 | 122.52 | 116.83 | 111.39 | 106.22 | 101.28 |
| Depreciation | 129.53 | 154.62 | 205.91 | 184.83 | 193.84 | 150.54 | 143.54 | 136.87 | 130.50 | 124.44 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -5.39 | 11.24 | 18.32 | -18.82 | 10.01 | 2.57 | 2.45 | 2.34 | 2.23 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -6.37 | 17.58 | -21.90 | 53.96 | -64.18 | -8.37 | -7.98 | -7.61 | -7.25 |
| Capital Expenditure | -212.94 | -214.60 | -204.85 | -144.38 | -144.14 | -156.46 | -149.19 | -142.25 | -135.64 | -129.33 |
| UFCF | 62.82 | 51.67 | 138.18 | 388.36 | 134.28 | 62.43 | 105.38 | 100.48 | 95.81 | 91.36 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 60.24 | 98.13 | 90.29 | 83.08 | 76.44 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 408.18 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.63 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 93.19 |
| Terminal Value | 5,716.92 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,783.38 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 5,191.56 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,089.58 |
| Equity Value | 4,101.99 |
| Shares Outstanding | 539.06 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 7.61 |