Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Pason Systems Inc. (PSI.TO)

$12.89

+0.49 (+3.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7.38 | 12.89 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 245.64306.39295.64156.64206.69209.87213.10216.38219.71223.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 84.90126.96115.7146.2071.2775.1876.3477.5178.7179.92
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 39.2292.1074.8811.7845.5842.3643.0243.6844.3545.03
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 45.6834.8640.8334.4225.6932.8233.3233.8334.3634.88
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 154.13203.84161.02149.28158.28149.27151.56153.90156.27158.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 76.90101.5377.4044.5463.0962.7863.7564.7365.7366.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6.6410.928.553.628.616.566.666.766.876.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -20.76-23.88-24.18-5.16-10.92-13.85-14.06-14.28-14.50-14.72
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.89
Beta 1.752
Diluted Shares Outstanding 82.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.49
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.88%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.234
Total Debt 7.33
Total Equity 1,068.76
Total Capital 1,076.09
Debt Weighting 0.68
Equity Weighting 99.32
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 245.64306.39295.64156.64206.69209.87213.10216.38219.71223.09
EBITDA 84.90126.96115.7146.2071.2775.1876.3477.5178.7179.92
EBIT 39.2292.1074.8811.7845.5842.3643.0243.6844.3545.03
Tax Rate 35.77%31.66%26.87%34.31%22.49%30.22%30.22%30.22%30.22%30.22%
EBIAT 25.1962.9454.767.7435.3329.5630.0230.4830.9531.43
Depreciation 45.6834.8640.8334.4225.6932.8233.3233.8334.3634.88
Accounts Receivable --24.6324.1332.86-18.550.30-0.97-0.98-1-1.01
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -4.28-2.37-4.934.99-2.040.100.100.100.11
Capital Expenditure -20.76-23.88-24.18-5.16-10.92-13.85-14.06-14.28-14.50-14.72
UFCF 50.1153.5893.1664.9436.5446.7848.4149.1549.9150.68
WACC
PV UFCF 41.7038.4734.8231.5228.53
SUM PV UFCF 175.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) 51.69
Terminal Value 507.79
Present Value of Terminal Value 285.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 460.86
Net Debt -150.95
Equity Value 611.82
Shares Outstanding 82.91
Equity Value Per Share 7.38