Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN)

$11.39

+0.28 (+2.52%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.67 | 11.39 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,356.683,3272,470.681,124.251,357.081,294.821,235.411,178.731,124.651,073.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -290.33-315.83-455.17-219.34173.91-121.53-115.96-110.64-105.56-100.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -290.33-315.83-455.17-890.25-675.27-912.99-871.10-831.14-793-756.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---670.91849.18791.46755.15720.50687.44655.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 42.83245.03174.18224.92117.52116.27110.94105.85100.9996.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 581.51562.93346.10164.64356.15249.88238.41227.47217.04207.08
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 69.1765.5836.3633.0842.3632.2230.7429.3327.9926.70
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 319.62288.96170.4791.62190.22132.88126.79120.97115.42110.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -567.09-641.46-347.51-145.48-166.32-213.92-204.10-194.74-185.80-177.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.39
Beta 2.269
Diluted Shares Outstanding 188.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 9.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.35%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.673
Total Debt 877.32
Total Equity 2,141.47
Total Capital 3,018.79
Debt Weighting 29.06
Equity Weighting 70.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,356.683,3272,470.681,124.251,357.081,294.821,235.411,178.731,124.651,073.05
EBITDA -290.33-315.83-455.17-219.34173.91-121.53-115.96-110.64-105.56-100.72
EBIT -290.33-315.83-455.17-890.25-675.27-912.99-871.10-831.14-793-756.62
Tax Rate 101.80%12.52%19.74%13.68%9.06%31.36%31.36%31.36%31.36%31.36%
EBIAT 5.23-276.30-365.34-768.50-614.07-626.69-597.93-570.50-544.33-519.35
Depreciation ---670.91849.18791.46755.15720.50687.44655.90
Accounts Receivable -18.58216.83181.45-191.51106.2711.4610.9410.449.96
Inventories -3.5929.223.27-9.2710.141.481.411.351.28
Accounts Payable --30.66-118.49-78.8598.60-57.33-6.10-5.82-5.55-5.30
Capital Expenditure -567.09-641.46-347.51-145.48-166.32-213.92-204.10-194.74-185.80-177.28
UFCF -561.85-926.25-585.29-137.20-33.399.93-40.04-38.21-36.45-34.78
WACC
PV UFCF 8.90-32.11-27.44-23.44-20.03
SUM PV UFCF -94.12

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.67
Free cash flow (t + 1) -35.48
Terminal Value -366.87
Present Value of Terminal Value -211.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -305.39
Net Debt 759.80
Equity Value -1,065.19
Shares Outstanding 188.01
Equity Value Per Share -5.67