Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Points.com Inc. (PTS.TO)

$32.16

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 16.73 | 32.16 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 347.55376.25401.18217.39370.01406.34446.24490.06538.18591.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8.8314.2621.92-1.114.5410.1711.1612.2613.4614.79
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4.8410.9017.25-5.97-0.014.755.215.726.296.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.993.364.674.864.555.425.956.547.187.88
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 63.5169.1369.9673.0799.6593.16102.31112.35123.39135.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 23.4322.8336.179.3520.8425.8128.3431.1334.1837.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.062.150.190.020.030.530.580.640.700.77
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 73.5679.2492.0456.4084.5892.62101.72111.71122.67134.72
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.73-2.27-2.38-2.29-1.78-2.86-3.14-3.45-3.79-4.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 32.16
Beta 1.820
Diluted Shares Outstanding 14.52
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 4.44
After-tax Cost of Debt 29.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.396
Total Debt 1.16
Total Equity 467.11
Total Capital 468.27
Debt Weighting 0.25
Equity Weighting 99.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 347.55376.25401.18217.39370.01406.34446.24490.06538.18591.03
EBITDA 8.8314.2621.92-1.114.5410.1711.1612.2613.4614.79
EBIT 4.8410.9017.25-5.97-0.014.755.215.726.296.90
Tax Rate 30.18%28.49%30.25%21.42%4.44%22.95%22.95%22.95%22.95%22.95%
EBIAT 3.387.7912.04-4.69-0.013.664.024.414.845.32
Depreciation 3.993.364.674.864.555.425.956.547.187.88
Accounts Receivable -0.60-13.3426.81-11.49-4.97-2.53-2.78-3.06-3.36
Inventories --2.101.970.17-0.01-0.50-0.05-0.06-0.06-0.07
Accounts Payable -5.6712.80-35.6428.198.049.109.9910.9712.05
Capital Expenditure -2.73-2.27-2.38-2.29-1.78-2.86-3.14-3.45-3.79-4.16
UFCF 4.6313.0615.75-10.7819.458.7913.3414.6516.0817.66
WACC
PV UFCF 7.8110.5510.3010.069.83
SUM PV UFCF 48.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.44
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18.02
Terminal Value 172.57
Present Value of Terminal Value 96.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 144.57
Net Debt -98.48
Equity Value 243.06
Shares Outstanding 14.52
Equity Value Per Share 16.73