Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP)

$8.05

+0.05 (+0.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -7.18 | 8.05 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 981.871,704.562,052.31789.23874.51969.111,073.931,190.101,318.831,461.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 78.72320.14365.9521.1765.55106.23117.72130.46144.57160.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 23.09232.01220.64-132.12-67.824.304.765.285.856.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 55.6388.14145.30153.29133.38101.93112.96125.18138.72153.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 23.95132.70149.0468.77111.9275.5983.7692.82102.86113.99
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 199.66202.96212.1884.24128.15131.62145.86161.63179.12198.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6.186.352.442.733.953.724.124.575.065.61
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 211.15214.46193.1079.15152.65137.57152.45168.95187.22207.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -285.89-284.20-502.89-100.60-143.52-192.76-213.61-236.72-262.32-290.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.05
Beta 2.451
Diluted Shares Outstanding 103.26
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.82
After-tax Cost of Debt 104.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.375
Total Debt 0.47
Total Equity 831.22
Total Capital 831.68
Debt Weighting 0.06
Equity Weighting 99.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 981.871,704.562,052.31789.23874.51969.111,073.931,190.101,318.831,461.49
EBITDA 78.72320.14365.9521.1765.55106.23117.72130.46144.57160.20
EBIT 23.09232.01220.64-132.12-67.824.304.765.285.856.48
Tax Rate 19.87%22.77%23.65%20.43%20.82%21.51%21.51%21.51%21.51%21.51%
EBIAT 18.50179.18168.46-105.12-53.703.373.744.144.595.09
Depreciation 55.6388.14145.30153.29133.38101.93112.96125.18138.72153.72
Accounts Receivable --3.30-9.23127.94-43.90-3.47-14.24-15.78-17.48-19.37
Inventories --0.173.92-0.29-1.220.23-0.40-0.45-0.49-0.55
Accounts Payable -3.31-21.36-113.9473.50-15.0814.8816.4918.2720.25
Capital Expenditure -285.89-284.20-502.89-100.60-143.52-192.76-213.61-236.72-262.32-290.70
UFCF -211.76-17.03-215.80-38.73-35.47-105.77-96.67-107.13-118.72-131.56
WACC
PV UFCF -91.64-72.57-69.67-66.89-64.23
SUM PV UFCF -365

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.42
Free cash flow (t + 1) -134.19
Terminal Value -999.92
Present Value of Terminal Value -488.16

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -853.16
Net Debt -111.45
Equity Value -741.71
Shares Outstanding 103.26
Equity Value Per Share -7.18