Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
The RealReal, Inc. (REAL)
$1.16
+0.06 (+5.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 207.38 | 318.04 | 299.95 | 467.69 | 603.49 | 803.60 | 1,070.07 | 1,424.89 | 1,897.37 | 2,526.52 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -65.22 | -82.52 | -135.56 | -190.99 | -158.13 | -272.64 | -363.04 | -483.42 | -643.71 | -857.16 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -74.51 | -95.93 | -170.47 | -214.52 | -185.80 | -320.77 | -427.13 | -568.77 | -757.36 | -1,008.50 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 9.29 | 13.41 | 34.91 | 23.53 | 27.67 | 48.13 | 64.10 | 85.35 | 113.65 | 151.34 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 61.52 | 363.26 | 354.86 | 418.17 | 293.79 | 643.35 | 856.67 | 1,140.73 | 1,518.99 | 2,022.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 7.57 | 7.78 | 7.21 | 7.77 | 12.21 | 19.58 | 26.08 | 34.72 | 46.24 | 61.57 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 10.35 | 23.60 | 42.32 | 71.01 | 42.97 | 78.47 | 104.50 | 139.15 | 185.29 | 246.72 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.15 | 11.16 | 14.35 | 4.50 | 11.90 | 22.03 | 29.34 | 39.07 | 52.02 | 69.27 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -19.12 | -34.03 | -26.93 | -47.44 | -22.16 | -68.64 | -91.41 | -121.72 | -162.08 | -215.82 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.16 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.403 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 95.92 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.09 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.76% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.722 |
| Total Debt | 595.74 |
| Total Equity | 111.27 |
| Total Capital | 707.01 |
| Debt Weighting | 84.26 |
| Equity Weighting | 15.74 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 207.38 | 318.04 | 299.95 | 467.69 | 603.49 | 803.60 | 1,070.07 | 1,424.89 | 1,897.37 | 2,526.52 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -65.22 | -82.52 | -135.56 | -190.99 | -158.13 | -272.64 | -363.04 | -483.42 | -643.71 | -857.16 |
| EBIT | -74.51 | -95.93 | -170.47 | -214.52 | -185.80 | -320.77 | -427.13 | -568.77 | -757.36 | -1,008.50 |
| Tax Rate | -0.13% | -0.21% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% |
| EBIAT | -74.61 | -96.13 | -170.56 | -214.57 | -185.96 | -321.10 | -427.57 | -569.34 | -758.13 | -1,009.52 |
| Depreciation | 9.29 | 13.41 | 34.91 | 23.53 | 27.67 | 48.13 | 64.10 | 85.35 | 113.65 | 151.34 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.21 | 0.57 | -0.55 | -4.44 | -7.38 | -6.49 | -8.65 | -11.51 | -15.33 |
| Inventories | - | -13.24 | -18.72 | -28.69 | 28.05 | -35.51 | -26.02 | -34.65 | -46.14 | -61.44 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 6.01 | 3.19 | -9.84 | 7.40 | 10.13 | 7.31 | 9.73 | 12.95 | 17.25 |
| Capital Expenditure | -19.12 | -34.03 | -26.93 | -47.44 | -22.16 | -68.64 | -91.41 | -121.72 | -162.08 | -215.82 |
| UFCF | -84.44 | -124.19 | -177.56 | -277.57 | -149.45 | -374.36 | -480.09 | -639.28 | -851.25 | -1,133.52 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -360.65 | -445.58 | -571.61 | -733.28 | -940.68 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -3,051.80 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.80 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,156.19 |
| Terminal Value | -64,232.85 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -53,305.31 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -56,357.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 301.95 |
| Equity Value | -56,659.06 |
| Shares Outstanding | 95.92 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -590.68 |