Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (REI-UN.TO)
$20.27
+0.40 (+2.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,147.84 | 1,326.33 | 1,143.66 | 1,175.06 | 1,213.85 | 1,237.59 | 1,261.79 | 1,286.47 | 1,311.64 | 1,337.29 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 699.54 | 964.36 | 131 | 773.87 | 422.83 | 608.40 | 620.30 | 632.43 | 644.80 | 657.41 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 694.96 | 959.98 | 126.66 | 769.85 | 418.06 | 603.83 | 615.64 | 627.68 | 639.96 | 652.48 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 4.57 | 4.38 | 4.34 | 4.02 | 4.77 | 4.56 | 4.65 | 4.74 | 4.84 | 4.93 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 74.70 | 93.52 | 238.46 | 77.76 | 86.23 | 119.13 | 121.46 | 123.84 | 126.26 | 128.73 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 42.32 | 90.99 | 129.55 | 297.54 | 145.47 | 146.48 | 149.35 | 152.27 | 155.25 | 158.28 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 206.12 | 108.96 | 214.18 | 217.04 | 272.01 | 212.32 | 216.47 | 220.71 | 225.02 | 229.42 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 18.67 | 19.56 | 11.33 | 20.20 | 88.62 | 32.45 | 33.09 | 33.73 | 34.39 | 35.07 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -421.93 | -537.09 | -516.63 | -463.88 | -101.47 | -421.43 | -429.67 | -438.08 | -446.65 | -455.38 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 20.27 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.196 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 317.28 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.39 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.65% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.334 |
Total Debt | 6,778.91 |
Total Equity | 6,431.35 |
Total Capital | 13,210.26 |
Debt Weighting | 51.32 |
Equity Weighting | 48.68 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,147.84 | 1,326.33 | 1,143.66 | 1,175.06 | 1,213.85 | 1,237.59 | 1,261.79 | 1,286.47 | 1,311.64 | 1,337.29 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 699.54 | 964.36 | 131 | 773.87 | 422.83 | 608.40 | 620.30 | 632.43 | 644.80 | 657.41 |
EBIT | 694.96 | 959.98 | 126.66 | 769.85 | 418.06 | 603.83 | 615.64 | 627.68 | 639.96 | 652.48 |
Tax Rate | -0.41% | 0.18% | -19.63% | -0.01% | 0.39% | -3.90% | -3.90% | -3.90% | -3.90% | -3.90% |
EBIAT | 697.84 | 958.29 | 151.53 | 769.93 | 416.44 | 627.37 | 639.64 | 652.15 | 664.91 | 677.91 |
Depreciation | 4.57 | 4.38 | 4.34 | 4.02 | 4.77 | 4.56 | 4.65 | 4.74 | 4.84 | 4.93 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -48.66 | -38.56 | -167.99 | 152.07 | -1.01 | -2.87 | -2.92 | -2.98 | -3.04 |
Inventories | - | 97.17 | -105.23 | -2.86 | -54.96 | 59.69 | -4.15 | -4.23 | -4.32 | -4.40 |
Accounts Payable | - | 0.88 | -8.23 | 8.87 | 68.42 | -56.16 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
Capital Expenditure | -421.93 | -537.09 | -516.63 | -463.88 | -101.47 | -421.43 | -429.67 | -438.08 | -446.65 | -455.38 |
UFCF | 280.49 | 474.97 | -512.78 | 148.08 | 485.27 | 213.02 | 208.24 | 212.31 | 216.47 | 220.70 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 201.15 | 185.68 | 178.77 | 172.11 | 165.70 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 903.42 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.90 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 225.11 |
Terminal Value | 5,772.18 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,333.71 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 5,237.13 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 6,692.69 |
Equity Value | -1,455.56 |
Shares Outstanding | 317.28 |
Equity Value Per Share | -4.59 |