Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ring Energy, Inc. (REI)

$2.31

-0.18 (-7.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -685.04 | 2.31 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 66.70120.07195.70113.03196.31281.92404.86581.42834.991,199.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12.1712.8757.15-198.7826.09-58.87-84.55-121.42-174.37-250.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 12.1712.8757.15-241.80-11.08-139.20-199.91-287.09-412.29-592.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---43.0137.1780.33115.36165.67237.92341.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 15.013.36103.582.4119.6228.1840.4758.1283.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13.8913.2224.7216.8324.0340.3757.9783.25119.56171.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 44.4851.9154.6432.5046.23107.21153.96221.10317.53456
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -157.91-203.53-155.53-43.83-257.41-369.67-530.89-762.42-1,094.91-1,572.41
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.31
Beta 1.877
Diluted Shares Outstanding 121.19
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.65
After-tax Cost of Debt -4.83%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.556
Total Debt 292.33
Total Equity 279.96
Total Capital 572.29
Debt Weighting 51.08
Equity Weighting 48.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 66.70120.07195.70113.03196.31281.92404.86581.42834.991,199.13
EBITDA 12.1712.8757.15-198.7826.09-58.87-84.55-121.42-174.37-250.42
EBIT 12.1712.8757.15-241.80-11.08-139.20-199.91-287.09-412.29-592.09
Tax Rate 85.59%27.69%31.85%2.31%2.65%30.02%30.02%30.02%30.02%30.02%
EBIAT 1.759.3138.95-236.20-10.78-97.42-139.90-200.91-288.53-414.36
Depreciation ---43.0137.1780.33115.36165.67237.92341.68
Accounts Receivable -0.67-11.507.90-7.20-16.34-17.60-25.28-36.31-52.14
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -7.442.73-22.1413.7360.9746.7567.1496.42138.48
Capital Expenditure -157.91-203.53-155.53-43.83-257.41-369.67-530.89-762.42-1,094.91-1,572.41
UFCF -156.16-186.12-125.36-251.26-224.50-342.13-526.28-755.79-1,085.40-1,558.75
WACC
PV UFCF -329.98-489.58-678.14-939.31-1,301.07
SUM PV UFCF -3,738.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,589.93
Terminal Value -94,638.54
Present Value of Terminal Value -78,993.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -82,731.91
Net Debt 289.92
Equity Value -83,021.83
Shares Outstanding 121.19
Equity Value Per Share -685.04