Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Resolute Forest Products Inc. (RFP.TO)
$28.77
-0.07 (-0.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,513 | 3,756 | 2,923 | 2,800 | 3,664 | 3,768.32 | 3,875.61 | 3,985.95 | 4,099.43 | 4,216.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 253 | 646 | 209 | 264 | 687 | 450.16 | 462.98 | 476.16 | 489.72 | 503.66 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 49 | 434 | 42 | 95 | 523 | 241.57 | 248.45 | 255.53 | 262.80 | 270.28 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 204 | 212 | 167 | 169 | 164 | 208.59 | 214.52 | 220.63 | 226.91 | 233.37 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 6 | 304 | 3 | 113 | 112 | 116.51 | 119.83 | 123.24 | 126.75 | 130.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 479 | 449 | 349 | 278 | 313 | 422.05 | 434.07 | 446.43 | 459.14 | 472.21 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 526 | 508 | 522 | 462 | 510 | 578.63 | 595.10 | 612.05 | 629.47 | 647.39 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 306 | 299 | 255 | 251 | 262 | 312.85 | 321.75 | 330.91 | 340.33 | 350.02 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -164 | -155 | -113 | -78 | -112 | -139.45 | -143.42 | -147.51 | -151.71 | -156.03 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 28.77 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.831 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 80.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 39.09 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.55% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 16.855 |
| Total Debt | 361 |
| Total Equity | 2,310.23 |
| Total Capital | 2,671.23 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.51 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.49 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,513 | 3,756 | 2,923 | 2,800 | 3,664 | 3,768.32 | 3,875.61 | 3,985.95 | 4,099.43 | 4,216.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 253 | 646 | 209 | 264 | 687 | 450.16 | 462.98 | 476.16 | 489.72 | 503.66 |
| EBIT | 49 | 434 | 42 | 95 | 523 | 241.57 | 248.45 | 255.53 | 262.80 | 270.28 |
| Tax Rate | 1,500.00% | 39.28% | 527.27% | 83.61% | 39.09% | 437.85% | 437.85% | 437.85% | 437.85% | 437.85% |
| EBIAT | -686 | 263.54 | -179.45 | 15.57 | 318.57 | -816.16 | -839.39 | -863.29 | -887.87 | -913.15 |
| Depreciation | 204 | 212 | 167 | 169 | 164 | 208.59 | 214.52 | 220.63 | 226.91 | 233.37 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 30 | 100 | 71 | -35 | -109.05 | -12.02 | -12.36 | -12.71 | -13.07 |
| Inventories | - | 18 | -14 | 60 | -48 | -68.63 | -16.47 | -16.94 | -17.43 | -17.92 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -7 | -44 | -4 | 11 | 50.85 | 8.91 | 9.16 | 9.42 | 9.69 |
| Capital Expenditure | -164 | -155 | -113 | -78 | -112 | -139.45 | -143.42 | -147.51 | -151.71 | -156.03 |
| UFCF | -646 | 361.54 | -83.45 | 233.57 | 298.57 | -873.86 | -787.88 | -810.31 | -833.38 | -857.11 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -759.48 | -595.13 | -531.96 | -475.49 | -425.02 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -2,787.09 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 15.06 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -874.25 |
| Terminal Value | -6,694.10 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -3,319.48 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -6,106.57 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 249 |
| Equity Value | -6,355.57 |
| Shares Outstanding | 80.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -79.15 |