Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Resolute Forest Products Inc. (RFP.TO)

$28.77

-0.07 (-0.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -79.15 | 28.77 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,5133,7562,9232,8003,6643,768.323,875.613,985.954,099.434,216.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 253646209264687450.16462.98476.16489.72503.66
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 494344295523241.57248.45255.53262.80270.28
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 204212167169164208.59214.52220.63226.91233.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 63043113112116.51119.83123.24126.75130.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 479449349278313422.05434.07446.43459.14472.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 526508522462510578.63595.10612.05629.47647.39
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 306299255251262312.85321.75330.91340.33350.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -164-155-113-78-112-139.45-143.42-147.51-151.71-156.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.77
Beta 2.831
Diluted Shares Outstanding 80.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 39.09
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.55%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.855
Total Debt 361
Total Equity 2,310.23
Total Capital 2,671.23
Debt Weighting 13.51
Equity Weighting 86.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,5133,7562,9232,8003,6643,768.323,875.613,985.954,099.434,216.15
EBITDA 253646209264687450.16462.98476.16489.72503.66
EBIT 494344295523241.57248.45255.53262.80270.28
Tax Rate 1,500.00%39.28%527.27%83.61%39.09%437.85%437.85%437.85%437.85%437.85%
EBIAT -686263.54-179.4515.57318.57-816.16-839.39-863.29-887.87-913.15
Depreciation 204212167169164208.59214.52220.63226.91233.37
Accounts Receivable -3010071-35-109.05-12.02-12.36-12.71-13.07
Inventories -18-1460-48-68.63-16.47-16.94-17.43-17.92
Accounts Payable --7-44-41150.858.919.169.429.69
Capital Expenditure -164-155-113-78-112-139.45-143.42-147.51-151.71-156.03
UFCF -646361.54-83.45233.57298.57-873.86-787.88-810.31-833.38-857.11
WACC
PV UFCF -759.48-595.13-531.96-475.49-425.02
SUM PV UFCF -2,787.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) -874.25
Terminal Value -6,694.10
Present Value of Terminal Value -3,319.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,106.57
Net Debt 249
Equity Value -6,355.57
Shares Outstanding 80.30
Equity Value Per Share -79.15