Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Resolute Forest Products Inc. (RFP.TO)
$28.46
-0.19 (-0.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 3,513 | 3,756 | 2,923 | 2,800 | 3,664 | 3,768.32 | 3,875.61 | 3,985.95 | 4,099.43 | 4,216.15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 253 | 646 | 209 | 264 | 687 | 450.16 | 462.98 | 476.16 | 489.72 | 503.66 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 49 | 434 | 42 | 95 | 523 | 241.57 | 248.45 | 255.53 | 262.80 | 270.28 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 204 | 212 | 167 | 169 | 164 | 208.59 | 214.52 | 220.63 | 226.91 | 233.37 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 6 | 304 | 3 | 113 | 112 | 116.51 | 119.83 | 123.24 | 126.75 | 130.36 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 479 | 449 | 349 | 278 | 313 | 422.05 | 434.07 | 446.43 | 459.14 | 472.21 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 526 | 508 | 522 | 462 | 510 | 578.63 | 595.10 | 612.05 | 629.47 | 647.39 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 306 | 299 | 255 | 251 | 262 | 312.85 | 321.75 | 330.91 | 340.33 | 350.02 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -164 | -155 | -113 | -78 | -112 | -139.45 | -143.42 | -147.51 | -151.71 | -156.03 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 28.46 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.704 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 80.30 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 39.09 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.55% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 16.280 |
Total Debt | 361 |
Total Equity | 2,285.34 |
Total Capital | 2,646.34 |
Debt Weighting | 13.64 |
Equity Weighting | 86.36 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 3,513 | 3,756 | 2,923 | 2,800 | 3,664 | 3,768.32 | 3,875.61 | 3,985.95 | 4,099.43 | 4,216.15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 253 | 646 | 209 | 264 | 687 | 450.16 | 462.98 | 476.16 | 489.72 | 503.66 |
EBIT | 49 | 434 | 42 | 95 | 523 | 241.57 | 248.45 | 255.53 | 262.80 | 270.28 |
Tax Rate | 1,500.00% | 39.28% | 527.27% | 83.61% | 39.09% | 437.85% | 437.85% | 437.85% | 437.85% | 437.85% |
EBIAT | -686 | 263.54 | -179.45 | 15.57 | 318.57 | -816.16 | -839.39 | -863.29 | -887.87 | -913.15 |
Depreciation | 204 | 212 | 167 | 169 | 164 | 208.59 | 214.52 | 220.63 | 226.91 | 233.37 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 30 | 100 | 71 | -35 | -109.05 | -12.02 | -12.36 | -12.71 | -13.07 |
Inventories | - | 18 | -14 | 60 | -48 | -68.63 | -16.47 | -16.94 | -17.43 | -17.92 |
Accounts Payable | - | -7 | -44 | -4 | 11 | 50.85 | 8.91 | 9.16 | 9.42 | 9.69 |
Capital Expenditure | -164 | -155 | -113 | -78 | -112 | -139.45 | -143.42 | -147.51 | -151.71 | -156.03 |
UFCF | -646 | 361.54 | -83.45 | 233.57 | 298.57 | -873.86 | -787.88 | -810.31 | -833.38 | -857.11 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -762.93 | -600.54 | -539.24 | -484.19 | -434.76 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -2,821.66 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 14.54 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -874.25 |
Terminal Value | -6,971.68 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -3,536.32 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -6,357.98 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 249 |
Equity Value | -6,606.98 |
Shares Outstanding | 80.30 |
Equity Value Per Share | -82.28 |