Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Renault SA (RNO.PA)

28.76 €

+0.72 (+2.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -379.47 | 28.76 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 58,77057,41955,53743,47546,21343,787.1141,488.5739,310.6937,247.1335,291.89
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 9,5277,7495,537-2,4675,9194,099.323,884.133,680.243,487.053,304
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 6,4814,5041,728-7,2171,876826.91783.50742.37703.40666.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,0463,2453,8094,7504,0433,272.413,100.632,937.872,783.652,637.52
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 15,24115,69816,35722,12322,82116,025.5615,184.3214,387.2413,632.0112,916.41
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6,3285,8795,7805,6404,7924,795.214,543.504,304.994,079.013,864.89
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9,9049,5059,5828,2777,9757,6157,215.266,836.516,477.646,137.60
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,601-4,407-5,022-4,208-3,001-3,416.97-3,237.60-3,067.65-2,906.62-2,754.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.76
Beta 1.831
Diluted Shares Outstanding 271.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 43.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.36%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.615
Total Debt 61,655
Total Equity 7,804
Total Capital 69,459
Debt Weighting 88.76
Equity Weighting 11.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 58,77057,41955,53743,47546,21343,787.1141,488.5739,310.6937,247.1335,291.89
EBITDA 9,5277,7495,537-2,4675,9194,099.323,884.133,680.243,487.053,304
EBIT 6,4814,5041,728-7,2171,876826.91783.50742.37703.40666.48
Tax Rate 16.18%20.89%109.50%-5.01%43.19%36.95%36.95%36.95%36.95%36.95%
EBIAT 5,432.533,563.06-164.24-7,578.511,065.83521.37494468.07443.50420.21
Depreciation 3,0463,2453,8094,7504,0433,272.413,100.632,937.872,783.652,637.52
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -44999140848-3.21251.72238.50225.98214.12
Accounts Payable --39977-1,305-302-360-399.74-378.76-358.87-340.03
Capital Expenditure -3,601-4,407-5,022-4,208-3,001-3,416.97-3,237.60-3,067.65-2,906.62-2,754.04
UFCF 4,877.522,451.06-1,201.24-8,201.512,653.8313.59209198.03187.64177.79
WACC
PV UFCF 13.36201.92188.04175.13163.10
SUM PV UFCF 741.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) 181.34
Terminal Value -69,747.16
Present Value of Terminal Value -63,983.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -63,241.94
Net Debt 39,727
Equity Value -102,968.94
Shares Outstanding 271.35
Equity Value Per Share -379.47