Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TransAlta Renewables Inc. (RNW.TO)

$15.27

-0.09 (-0.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 16.62 | 15.27 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 459462446436470473.23476.48479.75483.04486.36
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 212441364298343345.06347.43349.82352.22354.64
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 97319228163193207.98209.41210.85212.30213.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 115122136135150137.08138.02138.97139.92140.88
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 207381582244211.74213.20214.66216.13217.62
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 11611590134120119.83120.65121.48122.32123.15
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 667787.087.137.187.237.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 414737508253.3053.6754.0454.4154.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -38-63-31-28-81-49.71-50.05-50.39-50.74-51.09
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 15.27
Beta 0.637
Diluted Shares Outstanding 266
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 6.67
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.99%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.980
Total Debt 981
Total Equity 4,061.82
Total Capital 5,042.82
Debt Weighting 19.45
Equity Weighting 80.55
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 459462446436470473.23476.48479.75483.04486.36
EBITDA 212441364298343345.06347.43349.82352.22354.64
EBIT 97319228163193207.98209.41210.85212.30213.76
Tax Rate 82.35%14.49%6.28%24.59%6.67%26.88%26.88%26.88%26.88%26.88%
EBIAT 17.12272.77213.68122.92180.13152.08153.13154.18155.24156.30
Depreciation 115122136135150137.08138.02138.97139.92140.88
Accounts Receivable -125-44140.17-0.82-0.83-0.83-0.84
Inventories -0-1-0-10.92-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05
Accounts Payable -6-101332-28.700.370.370.370.37
Capital Expenditure -38-63-31-28-81-49.71-50.05-50.39-50.74-51.09
UFCF 94.12338.77332.68198.92294.13211.84240.59242.24243.91245.58
WACC
PV UFCF 199.10212.52201.11190.31180.09
SUM PV UFCF 983.12

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 250.49
Terminal Value 5,693
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,174.78

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,157.90
Net Debt 737
Equity Value 4,420.90
Shares Outstanding 266
Equity Value Per Share 16.62