Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK)

$70.31

+0.25 (+0.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 47.96 | 70.31 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,002.371,047.441,032.581,339.781,389.971,517.061,655.771,807.171,972.412,152.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 113.94107.79129.38141.47141.70166.70181.94198.57216.73236.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 93.5687.84108.46109.50115.54135.65148.06161.59176.37192.50
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 20.3719.9520.9231.9726.1731.0433.8836.9840.3644.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 297.01191.3632.0512.8517.61161.51176.27192.39209.98229.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 140.28147.52197.99236.44217.16244.32266.66291.04317.65346.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 98.9178.4898.31176.21170.36158.65173.16188.99206.27225.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 79.1483.14134.74172.29106.58149.91163.62178.58194.90212.73
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -12.46-11.18-13.07-17.71-20.06-19.24-21-22.92-25.01-27.30
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 70.31
Beta 1.094
Diluted Shares Outstanding 32.19
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.09
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.15%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.419
Total Debt 116.42
Total Equity 2,263.42
Total Capital 2,379.84
Debt Weighting 4.89
Equity Weighting 95.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,002.371,047.441,032.581,339.781,389.971,517.061,655.771,807.171,972.412,152.75
EBITDA 113.94107.79129.38141.47141.70166.70181.94198.57216.73236.55
EBIT 93.5687.84108.46109.50115.54135.65148.06161.59176.37192.50
Tax Rate 20.18%23.21%40.08%24.04%26.09%26.72%26.72%26.72%26.72%26.72%
EBIAT 74.6867.4564.9983.1885.4099.41108.50118.42129.24141.06
Depreciation 20.3719.9520.9231.9726.1731.0433.8836.9840.3644.05
Accounts Receivable --7.23-50.48-38.4519.29-27.16-22.34-24.38-26.61-29.04
Inventories -20.44-19.83-77.905.8511.71-14.51-15.83-17.28-18.86
Accounts Payable -451.6037.55-65.7043.3313.7114.9616.3317.82
Capital Expenditure -12.46-11.18-13.07-17.70-20.06-19.24-21-22.92-25.01-27.30
UFCF 82.5993.4254.1318.6350.93139.0898.24107.22117.03127.73
WACC
PV UFCF 127.4782.5282.5582.5782.60
SUM PV UFCF 457.70

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.11
Free cash flow (t + 1) 130.28
Terminal Value 1,832.37
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,184.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,642.62
Net Debt 98.81
Equity Value 1,543.81
Shares Outstanding 32.19
Equity Value Per Share 47.96