Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK)

$37.68

-0.06 (-0.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 46.31 | 37.68 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 986.921,002.371,047.441,032.581,339.781,454.991,580.091,715.961,863.512,023.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 113.22112.38106.92110.65134.28156.06169.48184.06199.88217.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 91.5392.0186.9789.74102.31125.37136.15147.86160.58174.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 21.6920.3719.9520.9231.9730.6933.3336.1939.3142.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 222.28297.01191.3632.0512.85216.75235.39255.63277.61301.48
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 145.39140.28147.52197.99236.44231.73251.65273.29296.79322.31
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 86.3798.9178.4898.31176.21141.96154.17167.42181.82197.45
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 82.3979.1483.14134.74172.29145.75158.29171.90186.68202.73
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.40-12.46-11.18-13.07-17.71-17.61-19.13-20.77-22.56-24.50
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 37.68
Beta 1.157
Diluted Shares Outstanding 32.92
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.04
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.93%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.400
Total Debt 42.41
Total Equity 1,240.35
Total Capital 1,282.76
Debt Weighting 3.31
Equity Weighting 96.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 986.921,002.371,047.441,032.581,339.781,454.991,580.091,715.961,863.512,023.74
EBITDA 113.22112.38106.92110.65134.28156.06169.48184.06199.88217.07
EBIT 91.5392.0186.9789.74102.31125.37136.15147.86160.58174.38
Tax Rate 19.70%20.18%23.21%40.08%24.04%25.44%25.44%25.44%25.44%25.44%
EBIAT 73.5073.4466.7853.7777.7293.48101.51110.24119.72130.01
Depreciation 21.6920.3719.9520.9231.9730.6933.3336.1939.3142.69
Accounts Receivable -5.10-7.23-50.47-38.454.72-19.93-21.64-23.50-25.52
Inventories --12.5420.44-19.83-77.9034.25-12.21-13.26-14.40-15.63
Accounts Payable --3.25451.6037.55-26.5312.5313.6114.7816.05
Capital Expenditure -11.40-12.46-11.18-13.07-17.70-17.61-19.13-20.77-22.56-24.50
UFCF 83.7970.6792.7542.9113.17118.9896.11104.38113.35123.10
WACC
PV UFCF 108.9780.6280.1879.7579.31
SUM PV UFCF 428.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.19
Free cash flow (t + 1) 125.56
Terminal Value 1,746.36
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,125.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,554
Net Debt 29.56
Equity Value 1,524.43
Shares Outstanding 32.92
Equity Value Per Share 46.31