Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK)
$70.31
+0.25 (+0.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,002.37 | 1,047.44 | 1,032.58 | 1,339.78 | 1,389.97 | 1,517.06 | 1,655.77 | 1,807.17 | 1,972.41 | 2,152.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 113.94 | 107.79 | 129.38 | 141.47 | 141.70 | 166.70 | 181.94 | 198.57 | 216.73 | 236.55 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 93.56 | 87.84 | 108.46 | 109.50 | 115.54 | 135.65 | 148.06 | 161.59 | 176.37 | 192.50 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 20.37 | 19.95 | 20.92 | 31.97 | 26.17 | 31.04 | 33.88 | 36.98 | 40.36 | 44.05 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 297.01 | 191.36 | 32.05 | 12.85 | 17.61 | 161.51 | 176.27 | 192.39 | 209.98 | 229.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 140.28 | 147.52 | 197.99 | 236.44 | 217.16 | 244.32 | 266.66 | 291.04 | 317.65 | 346.70 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 98.91 | 78.48 | 98.31 | 176.21 | 170.36 | 158.65 | 173.16 | 188.99 | 206.27 | 225.13 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 79.14 | 83.14 | 134.74 | 172.29 | 106.58 | 149.91 | 163.62 | 178.58 | 194.90 | 212.73 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -12.46 | -11.18 | -13.07 | -17.71 | -20.06 | -19.24 | -21 | -22.92 | -25.01 | -27.30 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 70.31 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.094 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 32.19 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.09 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.15% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.419 |
| Total Debt | 116.42 |
| Total Equity | 2,263.42 |
| Total Capital | 2,379.84 |
| Debt Weighting | 4.89 |
| Equity Weighting | 95.11 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,002.37 | 1,047.44 | 1,032.58 | 1,339.78 | 1,389.97 | 1,517.06 | 1,655.77 | 1,807.17 | 1,972.41 | 2,152.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 113.94 | 107.79 | 129.38 | 141.47 | 141.70 | 166.70 | 181.94 | 198.57 | 216.73 | 236.55 |
| EBIT | 93.56 | 87.84 | 108.46 | 109.50 | 115.54 | 135.65 | 148.06 | 161.59 | 176.37 | 192.50 |
| Tax Rate | 20.18% | 23.21% | 40.08% | 24.04% | 26.09% | 26.72% | 26.72% | 26.72% | 26.72% | 26.72% |
| EBIAT | 74.68 | 67.45 | 64.99 | 83.18 | 85.40 | 99.41 | 108.50 | 118.42 | 129.24 | 141.06 |
| Depreciation | 20.37 | 19.95 | 20.92 | 31.97 | 26.17 | 31.04 | 33.88 | 36.98 | 40.36 | 44.05 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -7.23 | -50.48 | -38.45 | 19.29 | -27.16 | -22.34 | -24.38 | -26.61 | -29.04 |
| Inventories | - | 20.44 | -19.83 | -77.90 | 5.85 | 11.71 | -14.51 | -15.83 | -17.28 | -18.86 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 4 | 51.60 | 37.55 | -65.70 | 43.33 | 13.71 | 14.96 | 16.33 | 17.82 |
| Capital Expenditure | -12.46 | -11.18 | -13.07 | -17.70 | -20.06 | -19.24 | -21 | -22.92 | -25.01 | -27.30 |
| UFCF | 82.59 | 93.42 | 54.13 | 18.63 | 50.93 | 139.08 | 98.24 | 107.22 | 117.03 | 127.73 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 127.47 | 82.52 | 82.55 | 82.57 | 82.60 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 457.70 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.11 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 130.28 |
| Terminal Value | 1,832.37 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,184.92 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,642.62 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 98.81 |
| Equity Value | 1,543.81 |
| Shares Outstanding | 32.19 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 47.96 |