Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK)
$48.81
+2.11 (+4.52%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 986.92 | 1,002.37 | 1,047.44 | 1,032.58 | 1,339.78 | 1,454.99 | 1,580.09 | 1,715.96 | 1,863.51 | 2,023.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 113.22 | 112.38 | 106.92 | 110.65 | 134.28 | 156.06 | 169.48 | 184.06 | 199.88 | 217.07 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 91.53 | 92.01 | 86.97 | 89.74 | 102.31 | 125.37 | 136.15 | 147.86 | 160.58 | 174.38 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 21.69 | 20.37 | 19.95 | 20.92 | 31.97 | 30.69 | 33.33 | 36.19 | 39.31 | 42.69 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 222.28 | 297.01 | 191.36 | 32.05 | 12.85 | 216.75 | 235.39 | 255.63 | 277.61 | 301.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 145.39 | 140.28 | 147.52 | 197.99 | 236.44 | 231.73 | 251.65 | 273.29 | 296.79 | 322.31 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 86.37 | 98.91 | 78.48 | 98.31 | 176.21 | 141.96 | 154.17 | 167.42 | 181.82 | 197.45 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 82.39 | 79.14 | 83.14 | 134.74 | 172.29 | 145.75 | 158.29 | 171.90 | 186.68 | 202.73 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -11.40 | -12.46 | -11.18 | -13.07 | -17.71 | -17.61 | -19.13 | -20.77 | -22.56 | -24.50 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 48.81 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.138 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 32.92 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.04 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.93% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.222 |
| Total Debt | 42.41 |
| Total Equity | 1,606.73 |
| Total Capital | 1,649.14 |
| Debt Weighting | 2.57 |
| Equity Weighting | 97.43 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 986.92 | 1,002.37 | 1,047.44 | 1,032.58 | 1,339.78 | 1,454.99 | 1,580.09 | 1,715.96 | 1,863.51 | 2,023.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 113.22 | 112.38 | 106.92 | 110.65 | 134.28 | 156.06 | 169.48 | 184.06 | 199.88 | 217.07 |
| EBIT | 91.53 | 92.01 | 86.97 | 89.74 | 102.31 | 125.37 | 136.15 | 147.86 | 160.58 | 174.38 |
| Tax Rate | 19.70% | 20.18% | 23.21% | 40.08% | 24.04% | 25.44% | 25.44% | 25.44% | 25.44% | 25.44% |
| EBIAT | 73.50 | 73.44 | 66.78 | 53.77 | 77.72 | 93.48 | 101.51 | 110.24 | 119.72 | 130.01 |
| Depreciation | 21.69 | 20.37 | 19.95 | 20.92 | 31.97 | 30.69 | 33.33 | 36.19 | 39.31 | 42.69 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 5.10 | -7.23 | -50.47 | -38.45 | 4.72 | -19.93 | -21.64 | -23.50 | -25.52 |
| Inventories | - | -12.54 | 20.44 | -19.83 | -77.90 | 34.25 | -12.21 | -13.26 | -14.40 | -15.63 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -3.25 | 4 | 51.60 | 37.55 | -26.53 | 12.53 | 13.61 | 14.78 | 16.05 |
| Capital Expenditure | -11.40 | -12.46 | -11.18 | -13.07 | -17.70 | -17.61 | -19.13 | -20.77 | -22.56 | -24.50 |
| UFCF | 83.79 | 70.67 | 92.75 | 42.91 | 13.17 | 118.98 | 96.11 | 104.38 | 113.35 | 123.10 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 110.08 | 82.27 | 82.65 | 83.04 | 83.43 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 441.47 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.09 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 125.56 |
| Terminal Value | 2,061.79 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,397.39 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,838.86 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 29.56 |
| Equity Value | 1,809.30 |
| Shares Outstanding | 32.92 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 54.96 |