Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB)
$9.995
+0.27 (+2.72%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,338.56 | 1,315.01 | 868.71 | 1,162.08 | 1,266.62 | 1,289 | 1,311.77 | 1,334.95 | 1,358.54 | 1,382.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 84.89 | 78.66 | -187.59 | 46.74 | 19.83 | -9.49 | -9.66 | -9.83 | -10.01 | -10.18 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -10.48 | -13.13 | -275.15 | -36.70 | -56.41 | -105.87 | -107.74 | -109.64 | -111.58 | -113.55 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 95.37 | 91.79 | 87.56 | 83.44 | 76.24 | 96.37 | 98.08 | 99.81 | 101.57 | 103.37 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 18.57 | 30.05 | 16.12 | 22.75 | 48.83 | 29.23 | 29.75 | 30.28 | 30.81 | 31.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 25.03 | 22.37 | 33.17 | 37.22 | 21.99 | 31.78 | 32.35 | 32.92 | 33.50 | 34.09 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 27.37 | 26.42 | 23.80 | 25.22 | 26.45 | 28.49 | 29 | 29.51 | 30.03 | 30.56 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 39.02 | 33.04 | 20.18 | 32.51 | 39.34 | 35.20 | 35.82 | 36.45 | 37.10 | 37.75 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -50.27 | -57.31 | -22.13 | -42.26 | -38.16 | -44.63 | -45.42 | -46.22 | -47.03 | -47.87 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 9.995 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.903 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 15.84 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.97 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.12% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 17.823 |
| Total Debt | 647.08 |
| Total Equity | 158.32 |
| Total Capital | 805.40 |
| Debt Weighting | 80.34 |
| Equity Weighting | 19.66 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,338.56 | 1,315.01 | 868.71 | 1,162.08 | 1,266.62 | 1,289 | 1,311.77 | 1,334.95 | 1,358.54 | 1,382.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 84.89 | 78.66 | -187.59 | 46.74 | 19.83 | -9.49 | -9.66 | -9.83 | -10.01 | -10.18 |
| EBIT | -10.48 | -13.13 | -275.15 | -36.70 | -56.41 | -105.87 | -107.74 | -109.64 | -111.58 | -113.55 |
| Tax Rate | 70.02% | 64.46% | 2.64% | 0.30% | -0.97% | 27.29% | 27.29% | 27.29% | 27.29% | 27.29% |
| EBIAT | -3.14 | -4.67 | -267.88 | -36.59 | -56.96 | -76.98 | -78.34 | -79.72 | -81.13 | -82.56 |
| Depreciation | 95.37 | 91.79 | 87.56 | 83.44 | 76.24 | 96.37 | 98.08 | 99.81 | 101.57 | 103.37 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 2.66 | -10.80 | -4.05 | 15.23 | -9.80 | -0.56 | -0.57 | -0.58 | -0.59 |
| Inventories | - | 0.95 | 2.62 | -1.42 | -1.23 | -2.05 | -0.50 | -0.51 | -0.52 | -0.53 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -5.98 | -12.86 | 12.33 | 6.83 | -4.14 | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| Capital Expenditure | -50.27 | -57.31 | -22.13 | -42.26 | -38.16 | -44.63 | -45.42 | -46.22 | -47.03 | -47.87 |
| UFCF | 41.96 | 27.44 | -223.50 | 11.45 | 1.96 | -41.21 | -26.12 | -26.58 | -27.05 | -27.53 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -38.58 | -22.89 | -21.81 | -20.78 | -19.80 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -123.87 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.81 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -28.08 |
| Terminal Value | -583.72 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -419.90 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -543.77 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 598.25 |
| Equity Value | -1,142.02 |
| Shares Outstanding | 15.84 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -72.10 |