Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Rogers Sugar Inc. (RSI.TO)

$6.32

-0.01 (-0.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.16 | 6.32 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 682.52805.20794.29860.80893.93958.391,027.491,101.581,181.011,266.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 54.22101.6842.5790.50108.0793.0399.74106.93114.64122.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 40.6283.2123.3567.0282.8669.5474.5579.9385.6991.87
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 13.6018.4719.2223.4825.2123.4925.182728.9431.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 17.032.100.281.9715.649.159.8110.5111.2712.08
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 78.1881.7487.8096.3093.67104.13111.64119.69128.32137.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 173.13179.33182.36180.79180.29214.23229.68246.24264283.03
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 101.6191.6896.15105.8993.42117.17125.62134.68144.39154.80
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.30-23.66-27.01-26.15-24.68-28.12-30.15-32.33-34.66-37.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.32
Beta 0.583
Diluted Shares Outstanding 103.97
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.95
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.592
Total Debt 365.02
Total Equity 657.11
Total Capital 1,022.13
Debt Weighting 35.71
Equity Weighting 64.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 682.52805.20794.29860.80893.93958.391,027.491,101.581,181.011,266.17
EBITDA 54.22101.6842.5790.50108.0793.0399.74106.93114.64122.90
EBIT 40.6283.2123.3567.0282.8669.5474.5579.9385.6991.87
Tax Rate 28.91%27.24%235.35%28.43%26.95%69.37%69.37%69.37%69.37%69.37%
EBIAT 28.8860.55-31.6047.9760.5321.3022.8324.4826.2528.14
Depreciation 13.6018.4719.2223.4825.2123.4925.182728.9431.03
Accounts Receivable --3.55-6.06-8.502.63-10.46-7.51-8.05-8.63-9.25
Inventories --6.20-3.031.570.50-33.94-15.45-16.56-17.76-19.04
Accounts Payable --9.934.479.74-12.4723.758.459.069.7110.41
Capital Expenditure -17.30-23.66-27.01-26.15-24.68-28.12-30.15-32.33-34.66-37.16
UFCF 25.1735.69-44.0148.1051.73-3.993.363.603.864.14
WACC
PV UFCF -3.803.053.123.193.26
SUM PV UFCF 8.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.87
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4.22
Terminal Value 147.03
Present Value of Terminal Value 115.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 124.74
Net Debt 349.38
Equity Value -224.64
Shares Outstanding 103.97
Equity Value Per Share -2.16