Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Rogers Sugar Inc. (RSI.TO)
$6.32
-0.01 (-0.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 682.52 | 805.20 | 794.29 | 860.80 | 893.93 | 958.39 | 1,027.49 | 1,101.58 | 1,181.01 | 1,266.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 54.22 | 101.68 | 42.57 | 90.50 | 108.07 | 93.03 | 99.74 | 106.93 | 114.64 | 122.90 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 40.62 | 83.21 | 23.35 | 67.02 | 82.86 | 69.54 | 74.55 | 79.93 | 85.69 | 91.87 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 13.60 | 18.47 | 19.22 | 23.48 | 25.21 | 23.49 | 25.18 | 27 | 28.94 | 31.03 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 17.03 | 2.10 | 0.28 | 1.97 | 15.64 | 9.15 | 9.81 | 10.51 | 11.27 | 12.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 78.18 | 81.74 | 87.80 | 96.30 | 93.67 | 104.13 | 111.64 | 119.69 | 128.32 | 137.57 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 173.13 | 179.33 | 182.36 | 180.79 | 180.29 | 214.23 | 229.68 | 246.24 | 264 | 283.03 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 101.61 | 91.68 | 96.15 | 105.89 | 93.42 | 117.17 | 125.62 | 134.68 | 144.39 | 154.80 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -17.30 | -23.66 | -27.01 | -26.15 | -24.68 | -28.12 | -30.15 | -32.33 | -34.66 | -37.16 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.32 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.583 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 103.97 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.95 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.56% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.592 |
| Total Debt | 365.02 |
| Total Equity | 657.11 |
| Total Capital | 1,022.13 |
| Debt Weighting | 35.71 |
| Equity Weighting | 64.29 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 682.52 | 805.20 | 794.29 | 860.80 | 893.93 | 958.39 | 1,027.49 | 1,101.58 | 1,181.01 | 1,266.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 54.22 | 101.68 | 42.57 | 90.50 | 108.07 | 93.03 | 99.74 | 106.93 | 114.64 | 122.90 |
| EBIT | 40.62 | 83.21 | 23.35 | 67.02 | 82.86 | 69.54 | 74.55 | 79.93 | 85.69 | 91.87 |
| Tax Rate | 28.91% | 27.24% | 235.35% | 28.43% | 26.95% | 69.37% | 69.37% | 69.37% | 69.37% | 69.37% |
| EBIAT | 28.88 | 60.55 | -31.60 | 47.97 | 60.53 | 21.30 | 22.83 | 24.48 | 26.25 | 28.14 |
| Depreciation | 13.60 | 18.47 | 19.22 | 23.48 | 25.21 | 23.49 | 25.18 | 27 | 28.94 | 31.03 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -3.55 | -6.06 | -8.50 | 2.63 | -10.46 | -7.51 | -8.05 | -8.63 | -9.25 |
| Inventories | - | -6.20 | -3.03 | 1.57 | 0.50 | -33.94 | -15.45 | -16.56 | -17.76 | -19.04 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -9.93 | 4.47 | 9.74 | -12.47 | 23.75 | 8.45 | 9.06 | 9.71 | 10.41 |
| Capital Expenditure | -17.30 | -23.66 | -27.01 | -26.15 | -24.68 | -28.12 | -30.15 | -32.33 | -34.66 | -37.16 |
| UFCF | 25.17 | 35.69 | -44.01 | 48.10 | 51.73 | -3.99 | 3.36 | 3.60 | 3.86 | 4.14 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -3.80 | 3.05 | 3.12 | 3.19 | 3.26 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 8.82 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.87 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 4.22 |
| Terminal Value | 147.03 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 115.92 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 124.74 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 349.38 |
| Equity Value | -224.64 |
| Shares Outstanding | 103.97 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -2.16 |