Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ruth's Hospitality Group, Inc. (RUTH)

$16.67

+0.42 (+2.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 4.63 | 16.67 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 414.82452.33468.03277.75429.12457.40487.54519.66553.91590.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 61.6270.2073.93-6.5670.3055.0658.6962.5666.6871.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 46.6351.6752.58-28.5249.8232.2334.3636.6239.0341.61
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1518.5421.3521.9620.4922.8324.3425.9427.6529.47
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4.055.065.5795.4092.1354.0757.6361.4365.4869.79
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 21.6319.4823.7724.3141.5930.2332.2234.3436.6039.02
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8.699.309.626.938.559.7810.4311.1111.8512.63
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 10.5110.2713.604.1011.6910.8911.6112.3813.1914.06
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -21.25-31.91-31.67-10.62-19.65-25.02-26.67-28.42-30.30-32.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.67
Beta 1.942
Diluted Shares Outstanding 34.47
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.77
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.132
Total Debt 313.68
Total Equity 574.58
Total Capital 888.27
Debt Weighting 35.31
Equity Weighting 64.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 414.82452.33468.03277.75429.12457.40487.54519.66553.91590.40
EBITDA 61.6270.2073.93-6.5670.3055.0658.6962.5666.6871.08
EBIT 46.6351.6752.58-28.5249.8232.2334.3636.6239.0341.61
Tax Rate 34.36%16.38%16.22%23.82%8.77%19.91%19.91%19.91%19.91%19.91%
EBIAT 30.6043.2044.05-21.7345.4525.8127.5229.3331.2633.32
Depreciation 1518.5421.3521.9620.4922.8324.3425.9427.6529.47
Accounts Receivable -2.15-4.29-0.54-17.2811.36-1.99-2.12-2.26-2.41
Inventories --0.61-0.332.69-1.62-1.23-0.64-0.69-0.73-0.78
Accounts Payable --0.243.33-9.507.58-0.790.720.770.820.87
Capital Expenditure -21.25-31.91-31.67-10.62-19.65-25.02-26.67-28.42-30.30-32.29
UFCF 24.3431.1432.44-17.7334.9732.9723.2724.8026.4428.18
WACC
PV UFCF 30.2919.6419.2318.8318.44
SUM PV UFCF 106.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) 28.74
Terminal Value 419.57
Present Value of Terminal Value 274.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 381.01
Net Debt 221.55
Equity Value 159.46
Shares Outstanding 34.47
Equity Value Per Share 4.63